Just a quick note this afternoon to go over the updates to the Federal Vote and Seat Projections and the Quebec Election Tracker.
It’s been a quieter week on the national polling front, so with only a few new data points to add to the projection model there’s been very little shift in the numbers. The Liberals lead with 45.5% — a minor gain of 0.2 points since last week but their highest projected vote share since the end of May — and are leading in 220 seats, winning 213.6 seats on average.
The Conservatives have slipped another 0.2 points to 33%. They’ve been hovering around that number for the last few weeks and are leading in 83 seats, the same number as last week. But more worryingly for the party is that their average seat wins are only 95.8. That’s the lowest ever in the model (since the 2025 election). Remember that the average projection takes into account the number of toss-ups and the Conservative tendency to beat their polls.
So, even if they win their fair share of toss-ups and outperform their polling levels, the Conservatives would still win only around 96 seats. Twice before the Conservatives have won 99 seats (in 2004 and in 2015), but never since the party was formed out of the merger of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives in 2003 has the party won just 96 seats.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
Moving over to Quebec, a new poll published this morning from Léger shows numbers that are, once again, nearly identical to the latest Pallas Data survey. That being the case, the projection has not shifted much since yesterday’s update.
The Parti Québécois is leading in 59 ridings across Quebec, but their upper ceiling sits at 64 seats — the very threshold for a majority government. The PQ would need to win all of the toss-ups in which they are projected to be leading as well as flip a few seats in which they are trailing in order to form a majority government. That’s not impossible, but it sure would be lucky for the PQ.
That’s why the average seat projection for the PQ is just 49.1 seats. Many of the PQ-CAQ toss-ups are likely to go the CAQ’s way, particularly when poll after poll shows the CAQ’s support being concentrated among the older voters who actually turn out to vote. The CAQ is projected to be leading in just 17 seats but wins an average of 30.6 seats in the projection model. That puts them nearly on par with the Liberals.
The story in Quebec remains one of stability following Christine Fréchette’s and the CAQ’s modest recovery, thanks in large part to Donald Trump. His renewed attacks on Bombardier, which occurred after the Pallas and Léger polls, could further assist Fréchette. But there is a lack of enthusiasm for any of the parties or their leaders in Quebec, so it’s also possible that the numbers won’t shift much.
That’s not the case federally, however. The Liberals appear to be benefitting from another Trump bump and Mark Carney’s personal numbers seem to be on the rise again. I’ll delve into this in further detail in Thursday’s Weekly Writ.