With today’s update, the Liberals are now at their highest level of support in the projection and have a wider lead over the Conservatives than they’ve had since the 2025 federal election — and long before that.
Five polls published over the last week have had nothing but good news for the Liberals, with four of those polls giving the party a lead of at least 14 points over the Conservatives. Those polls have pushed the Liberals to 46.6% in the vote projection, their highest point yet. With the Conservatives at 33%, unchanged from last week, the gap of 13.3 points is wider than any gap in the model since the last election. Stretching back to the CBC Poll Tracker predecessors of The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection Model, my projections last had a Liberal lead of this size in November 2016 — nearly 10 years ago.
The Liberals are now projected to be leading in 225 seats. They hit a range of 226 to 230 seats back in the spring, but their average projection (which takes into account close races and past polling misses) has never been higher than their current tally of 219.6 seats. Similarly, the Conservatives have been lower than 80 seats before (they dropped to 77 at the end of May), but their average projection of 94.7 seats is a new low for the party.
This is an indication of how the number of closely-contested seats between the Liberals and the Conservatives has decreased. When the Liberals were last at this level in the seat projection, many of the seats they were leading in were considered toss-ups that could’ve gone another way. Now, the Liberals are leading in a similar number of seats but the Conservatives have a shot of coming out ahead in fewer of them. For that reason, the Liberals’ odds of winning a majority have hit a new high at 97%.
The New Democrats got a couple of single-digit polls over the last week and have fallen to 9.8%. They still lead in 15 seats, but their average seat projection is back below the 12-seat threshold for recognized party status. The Bloc is also holding relatively steady at 21 seats, but its average has fallen to 17.3 seats. For both of these parties, they are in more tight races than they were in before as the Liberal ceiling rises.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
It’s clear enough that the renewed focus on Canada-U.S. relations has boosted the Liberals and Mark Carney. But there are a few regions where the shifts in support have been particularly pronounced — and a few others where the Liberals have actually lost some ground.