Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
After the breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States, Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to have locked his elbows back into an up position — aligning himself back with the Canadian mood in the same way that had propelled him to victory in the 2025 election.
There’s still some lack of clarity on just what exactly led to the collapse of negotiations, but what is clear enough is that any deal that would have been struck with the U.S. president would have been, to borrow Carney’s words, signed in pencil, not ink.
That’s why it was somewhat puzzling that the Liberals appeared to be priming Canadians for the successful conclusion of a deal in the days ahead of the collapse of negotiations. All indications are that the deal that was close to being agreed upon would have still been a relatively bad one for Canadians, and it doesn’t seem likely that Canadians were going to be ready to swallow that.
Indeed, a Léger poll conducted before the events of the last week showed that 56% of Canadians wanted the federal government to take a hard line and make no more concessions in the negotiations with the United States. Just 31% urged flexibility and concessions. Carney was at risk of finding himself out of step with the mood of Canadians on this file.
Well, no longer.
The initial response to the decision to cease negotiations has been incredibly positive. Polling by the Angus Reid Institute found that 76% of Canadians felt that Carney did the right thing to end negotiations. Just 13% thought it was the wrong move.
It’s rare to find that kind of unanimity on any decision made by a government.
And, for the time being at least, it seems unlikely that Carney will shoulder much, if any, of the blame for the failure to reach a deal. Only a third of Canadians told the ARI that they felt we had a great deal or a fair amount of control over the outcome of the negotiations. Fully 59% said we had little or no control, a recognition from Canadians that a “take it or leave it” deal was the best we could expect from Donald Trump.
Moving forward, it seems that Canadians will back the retaliatory tariffs that have been announced. The ARI found that 62% thought it would be the right response. Another 16% said we should go even harder against the Americans.
That should come as no surprise as polling has consistently showed that Canadians want to stand up to Trump and that positive views of the United States and Americans have plummeted among Canadians. There’s little appetite for a conciliatory approach, and Trump’s ridiculous threats to “rename” Lake Ontario aren’t going to make Canadians want to go any easier on him.
(And, please, let’s not pretend that Trump can rename Lake Ontario. He can call it whatever he wants or direct his government departments to change the name on official documents, but it’ll still be Lake Ontario here and everywhere else in the world. No one outside of the United States, and few within it, have actually begun calling the Gulf of Mexico anything else.)
Another poll from the Angus Reid Institute suggests that Carney has a deep well of public support to call upon as well as some capital to spend. The poll found that 69% of Canadians think their premiers should take a Team Canada approach, with just 22% saying they should take a Province First approach instead. Even in Alberta, where Premier Danielle Smith has been softer in her backing of the federal government, just 32% of respondents think a Province First approach is the right idea. It’s even lower in Quebec at 18%, which puts Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in a bit of a bind as he tries to undermine Carney’s (and, by extension, Premier Christine Fréchette’s) handling of this file. If Carney tries to get the premiers to fall in line behind him, he has the public’s backing.
Simply put, polling suggests Canadians are up for the fight and are surprisingly optimistic about it. While they overwhelmingly express concern about the impact on the Canadian economy, by a margin of 59% to 35% a majority feel that Canada can “weather the storm and adapt”, while 64% of Canadians say the country will emerge stronger as it is forced to reduce its dependence on the United States. Only 26% disagree. That is a big endorsement of Carney’s own framing of the path forward.
The “Elbows Up” rhetoric from the 2025 election was very effective for Carney, but he didn’t entirely keep those elbows up for most of the last 16 months. Now, the rhetoric is back and seems likely to be just as politically effective.
It further isolates Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. A survey by Pollara conducted a few weeks ago found Carney trusted over Poilievre on managing Canada-U.S. relations by a margin of 58% to 23%. Poilievre has little standing in public opinion on this issue, so it’ll be very challenging for him to try to tap into the current mood.
And he’s already facing some headwinds within his caucus and his party over his leadership. Monday’s byelection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, which it seems the Conservatives are likely to lose (more on that below), is not going to help matters.
Those byelections, and the next few weeks of polls, will be worth watching to see what impact the recent tumult will have on public opinion. Are Mark Carney and the Liberals going to get another boost and pad their majority with some byelection wins? And, if there is a rally-round-the-flag effect on public opinion, what impact could that have on our domestic politics, including Quebec’s provincial election and the referendum on independence in Alberta?
We’ll have answers to that soon enough. For now, Carney is once again set to ride the wave of frustration and anger Canadians have with the U.S. president and his administration. We’ll see how far that can take Carney this time.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
What to watch in Monday’s three federal byelections, plus news on Quebec’s election, more caucus defections for the B.C. Conservatives and a byelection is scheduled in Alberta.
Polls showed the Liberals enjoying a double-digit lead before this week’s events. Plus, new numbers out of Ontario and Quebec.
#EveryElectionProject: “A bit of a rascal” goes down to defeat in Quebec.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
What to watch in Monday’s federal byelections
The trio of federal byelections being held on Monday in the ridings of Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano will serve as an early gauge of voters’ mood as they face the reality of a renewed trade war with the United States. They will also be tests for all four major parties. Let’s take a look at what’s at stake for each of them.