Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
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Canada’s counter-tariffs to the U.S. tariffs went into force on Tuesday. They were then countered by counter-counter-tariffs and import restrictions from the United States.
It’s not an easy time for Canadians. But polls suggest their resolve isn’t about to break anytime soon.
Surveys published over the last week by Nanos Research, Léger and the Angus Reid Institute all point in the same direction: a remarkable unity on what approach Canada should take against the United States.
Support for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to reject a trade deal with the U.S. remains very high, with Nanos finding that 85% of Canadians support or somewhat support rejecting the deal (with only 10% in the “somewhat” category). That’s a huge number, made all the more notable since the Nanos questionnaire explicitly included mention of “the potential economic risk to Canadians” that came with ceasing negotiations.
This is in part driven by the fact that Canadians have had enough of Donald Trump and his ongoing insults. Nanos found that 74% of Canadians think that the United States is not a trustworthy ally, while Léger found that 41% now view the United States as an enemy country. Fully 85% of Canadians reject the idea of becoming a U.S. state, according to Léger, with only 9% thinking that it’s a good idea.
When it comes to next steps, there is broad support for the retaliatory tariffs imposed by the Canadian government. Léger put that support at 74%, while Nanos gauged it at 80%. Again, Nanos asked respondents if they’d support tariffs “even if that means Canadians end up paying higher prices for goods”. This means that these support levels are despite a reminder to Canadians that they might have to foot the bill for hitting back at the Americans.
The Angus Reid Institute backs this up — it found majority support for staying the course on refusing to make important concessions even if household costs rose by as much as 20%, or if Canada entered a recession or if local businesses started shutting down. Only when major factories start closing and people lose their own jobs does support for sticking to our guns fall below the majority threshold. Even so, a plurality would still be in favour of not backing down.
Support for taking a “hard approach” and refusing to make difficult concessions has risen to 73% in the ARI survey, the highest its been since the ARI started asking this question last summer. The only division on this question is among those who voted for the Conservatives in 2025 — they’re split down the middle between a hard and a soft approach.
This is the challenge facing the Conservatives and their leader Pierre Poilievre. Their own voter base is split on this, but virtually everyone else (82% of Bloc voters, 88% of New Democrats and 92% of Liberals) is unwilling to compromise. The Conservatives can’t entirely ignore their own supporters who want to see a more conciliatory approach, but in doing so they risk alienating the other half of their own voters, as well as the vast majority of those who aren’t currently backing them.
It’s also a challenge for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the Parti Québécois, who made a faux pas when he dismissed Trump’s threats of retaliation (against Bombardier, for example) as “just a tweet”. The PQ leader appears to be frustrated that the U.S. president has interfered with his path to an easy majority victory in the ongoing Quebec election. But he risks throwing the campaign entirely if he can’t align himself more closely with the mood of Quebecers, who are among the most anti-Trump voters in the country.
Carney is currently at the front of the parade and other leaders, like David Eby in British Columbia, Wab Kinew in Manitoba, Doug Ford in Ontario and Christine Fréchette in Quebec are trying to join him there. The political stakes are sky high at the moment and any misstep could prove very costly. Canadians will be looking to see if any of their leaders’ nerves will crack, because for the time being their own nerves seem rock solid.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
How to interpret last week’s provincial byelections in Ontario, plus leadership news out of New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and among the federal Greens, as well as a new party being formed in British Columbia and a byelection on the way in Alberta.
Polls show the Liberals ahead by a wide margin, plus new numbers out of Ontario and Toronto.
#EveryElectionProject: One last time for Joey Smallwood (except it wasn’t).
Upcoming milestones for Pierre Poilievre and Wab Kinew.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Cautionary warnings for Ford in byelection results
Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs held on to their two seats in last week’s three provincial byelections, while the New Democrats held on to their single seat in a night that maintained the status quo at Queen’s Park.
The PCs should have breathed a sigh of relief after seeing these results — because they could have been quite a bit worse.