Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker launched
Plus, the Federal Projection is updated for May 26, 2026.
It might be a referendum about a referendum, but on October 19 Albertans will vote to decide whether or not the province should embark upon a process that could end with Alberta’s separation from Canada.
It’s a referendum that could prove to be the country’s most impactful vote since the referendum on Quebec independence in 1995. And, just like that referendum (and the one before it in 1980), it might be just as effective at putting the issue of separation to bed.
With the referendum now confirmed, many polls on the question will undoubtedly be published over the next five months. We’ve already seen over the last year that polls can differ quite significantly on this issue. To try to simplify matters for readers (and to give you a one-stop-shop for polls on the Alberta referendum), I’ve launched The Writ’s Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all the recent Alberta independence polls that have been published and all those that will be published between now and October 19.
In the first update, the “Remain” side is leading comfortably with just under 63% support, with support for independence (or the beginning of the process toward independence) sitting at just 30%. After the removal of undecideds, support for remaining in Canada hits two-thirds.
The Poll Tracker will be updated regularly as new polls are published. All polls on Alberta independence are included, but questions that use the actual wording of the referendum take precedence over questions that more refer to separation more generally. Hopefully, as we approach the actual vote, pollsters will have transitioned to asking the referendum question (or how people intend to vote in the referendum).
The provincewide averages, as well as the database of polls (with links to the original releases), will be publicly available on The Writ. Paid subscribers will get to go a little deeper, and will have access to the tracking charts and regional, demographic and partisan polling averages. If you aren’t already a subscriber and would like to get access to all the numbers (as well as the federal Vote and Seat Projections), now’s the time to take the plunge!
This referendum campaign is one that will have reverberations that we will certainly feel across the country for the next few months, and possibly for the next few years (and, maybe, decades). If the polls continue to show that the “Remain” side should win, that doesn’t mean there won’t still be repercussions in Canadian politics. Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will have to wade into this campaign, while Alberta Premier Danielle Smith appears to be gambling not only the unity of the country on this referendum, but potentially her own leadership of the divided United Conservative Party, too. As the polls suggest, Smith’s position on the side of Canada in this referendum seems to put her at odds with most of her party’s own supporters.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
So, this will be an ongoing story and I hope the Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker will help you navigate the deluge of polling numbers we can expect.
Speaking of which, the Vote and Seat Projections were also updated today. They continue to show the Liberals with a big, growing seat advantage over the Conservatives.
I’ll delve more deeply into the federal polls published over the last week in Thursday’s Weekly Writ, but the biggest driver of the Liberals’ dominance in the seat projection is Ontario. The three new polls added to the model all had the Liberals above 50% in Ontario, which is absolutely crushing for the Conservatives.
While the 230 Liberal seats and 77 Conservative seats look rather extreme in this projection, the Avg. Projection, which takes into account the number of toss-ups at stake as well as the tendency of parties to beat or under-perform their polls, still has the Liberals at (a comparatively modest) 215 seats against 99 for the Conservatives.
I’m increasingly leaning on the Avg. Projection rather than the Seat Projection in the model, as I feel it might be the more accurate reflection of likely outcomes. Yes, the Liberals are leading in 230 seats in the model, but so many of them are by tiny margins that it isn’t all that plausible they’d win all of them. I’ll keep mulling this over.
Is there comparable data from UK for the same timeframe ahead of Brexit? It'd be fascinating to see those trends compared, and since the PM himself drew the comparison, it's definitely fair game.
Do you think the difference between a toss & an edge might, in practice, be too granular to be meaningful? If so, I wonder if it’s skewing the seat projection.