Which party is the favourite in the upcoming vacancies?
Federal Projection Update for June 9, 2026.
The movement in The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection has continued this week, with the New Democrats holding most of their gains from the previous week and the Conservatives reversing — at least for the time-being — a worrying trend for them in Ontario.
The Liberals remain well in front of the pack, however, with 45.3% of the vote (+0.2 from last week, thanks in large part to a big 50% in last week’s Léger poll and an uptick in the Nanos tracker). They are leading in 219 seats, down one, and win an average of 208.2 seats (-1.7) in the projection model’s simulations.
The Conservatives are up 0.4 points since last week’s update to 33.9%, giving them the lead in 86 ridings (+5) and netting them an average of 103.5 seats (+4) in the projection model. Much of this increase in the seat projection is in Ontario, where the Conservatives flipped nine seats back to them as the Liberals slipped below 50% and the Conservatives got themselves back over 35% after falling below that threshold in the two previous updates. Those swings were nearly made-up for by the Liberals, however, in B.C. and Quebec.
After surging in the projection last week, the New Democrats only fell back a little this week with 10% (-0.8). They are leading in 15 seats (-1) and win an average of 11 (-1) in the projection. That has them still flirting with, but not guaranteed to win, recognized party status.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
A small uptick for the Liberals in Quebec has flipped three seats back to them from the Bloc Québécois, which drops the Bloc down to leading in 21 seats and winning 18.7 (-1.6) on average.
Good numbers for the Greens in British Columbia have boosted them to 2.4% nationally (+0.3) and their average seat haul to 1.6 (+0.3), with their high range reaching three seats for the first time since the last election.
Of course, all of these numbers are merely a reflection of where public opinion is at the moment. They are unlikely to be tested at the ballot box anytime soon — except in at least five ridings across the country where sitting MPs have indicated they will resign over the summer. We don’t know when those resignations will actually occur or when byelections will be called to fill the vacancies. But where do things stand in those five ridings right now?