Which Conservative MPs need a party comeback the most?
Federal Projection Update for April 21, 2026.
While the polls have largely stabilized, their new holding pattern means the Conservatives remain in a bad spot. And for a number of MPs — perhaps dozens — these numbers would mean the end of their political careers if an election were held today.
There’s been reporting on the fears within the Conservative caucus that Pierre Poilievre’s poor polling numbers have put their seats in danger. It’s undoubtedly been one of the factors contributing to the loss of four MPs to the Liberals through floor-crossing, with perhaps more to come. But some MPs are in greater need of a bounce back by the party (and have more reason to be tempted by the life raft of the Liberal benches). Who are they?
As it stands, the Conservatives would likely see their holdings in the House drop significantly if an election were held today. This week’s update to The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection puts the party ahead in just 83 seats, representing a decrease of 57 seats from the 140 the Conservatives currently hold. Even the party’s Avg. Projection, which takes into account the likelihood that the Conservatives would outperform their polls, would still have the party losing 40 seats.
There’s been little change in the projection since last week. The Liberal lead now stands at 12.4 points in the vote projection (46.3% to 33.9%), with the NDP stuck at 8.8%. The Liberals are projected to be leading in 226 seats, a gain of three since last week that has come equally from the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois (22) and NDP (10).
That things have not deteriorated further for the Conservatives might be a silver lining for the party — but for a lot of MPs, that just means that the party is currently bottoming out at levels that put their own seats on the chopping block.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
Let’s get to those seats that are most at risk. The Riding Projections classify seats from Safe to Toss. There are a lot of Conservative seats projected to be Liberal Tosses, but those could go either way. Instead, let’s focus on the Conservatives who are in most need of a comeback for their party and are in the greatest danger of losing — even if they beat their polls.