I'm sure you've discussed this but forget your conclusions:
Given the weak state of the Liberal brand at the provincial level, is is possible/probable that the "natural" level of the Liberal Party is around the Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff level? That the only reason they won in 2015 is due to the personal charisma of Justin Trudeau? Meaning that, if they were to replace Trudeau before the 2025 election, they would do worse than if he were to stay?
Do the polls cast any light on this?
And, as always, thanks for The Writ. It's so much more thoughtful than most of the commentary out there.
This is a really interesting question. I don't think the Ignatieff level is the natural home for the Liberals, and I think Dion's might also be too low. That was a time when the party was struggling in Quebec, and I think its historic base in that province is higher. I'd say their natural level is around 30%, and they go up or down from there based on the quality of the leader and general vibe of the party. The Conservatives are probably a little higher.
But this is just gut — I'm not sure how exactly to get at that. There are sometimes polls about whether people ID with one party or another, which might be the best measure, but I haven't seen one for awhile.
My favourite #EveryElectionProject entry thus far. What a gripping tale!
Glad you liked it!
HI Eric
I'm sure you've discussed this but forget your conclusions:
Given the weak state of the Liberal brand at the provincial level, is is possible/probable that the "natural" level of the Liberal Party is around the Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff level? That the only reason they won in 2015 is due to the personal charisma of Justin Trudeau? Meaning that, if they were to replace Trudeau before the 2025 election, they would do worse than if he were to stay?
Do the polls cast any light on this?
And, as always, thanks for The Writ. It's so much more thoughtful than most of the commentary out there.
This is a really interesting question. I don't think the Ignatieff level is the natural home for the Liberals, and I think Dion's might also be too low. That was a time when the party was struggling in Quebec, and I think its historic base in that province is higher. I'd say their natural level is around 30%, and they go up or down from there based on the quality of the leader and general vibe of the party. The Conservatives are probably a little higher.
But this is just gut — I'm not sure how exactly to get at that. There are sometimes polls about whether people ID with one party or another, which might be the best measure, but I haven't seen one for awhile.