Weekly Writ 7/23: Carney, Trump and tariffs
More than a year after Trump's first tariff threats, Canadians still want to put up a fight.
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Like a bolt from the blue, Canada was slapped with another round of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump this week.
The tariffs will only come into effect later in August and are on a limited number of goods (including hockey equipment, just to make the pettiness of it crystal clear). But it’s yet another reminder — if we really needed one — that there is little rhyme or reason or predictability when it comes to what Trump will do.
And, in a way, that seems to have numbed Canadians somewhat to his actions.
Prime Minister Mark Carney won the 2025 election in large part on the threats that Trump posed to Canada and the Canadian economy. In the face of that uncertainty, a serious, managerial and experienced figure like Carney appealed to voters more than did Pierre Poilievre, whose style of politics and messaging was extremely well-attuned to the throw-the-bums-out mood that prevailed in the last months of Justin Trudeau’s time in office, but was out of place when Canadians were looking for security and a steady hand.
Polling by the Environics Institute gives one indication of how the mood has shifted.
In early 2025, 43% of Canadians said they were “very worried” and 40% said they were “somewhat worried” about the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Canadian economy. In April 2026, Environics found that those who said they were “very worried” had dropped nine points to 34%, while those who said they were “not very worried” or “not at all worried” had increased from 14% to 19%.
It’s still a concern — but the intensity of that concern has lessened after a year of living under Trump’s tariff shadow. Why that is the case is up for interpretation. It could be that the impact hasn’t felt as bad as people feared, or it could be that Trump’s tendency to reverse himself has taken some of the bite out of his bark.
But it does mean that there is a little more leeway for Carney’s government on this file as Canadians get a little more numb to it.
That numbness, though, doesn’t mean complacency. Canadians are still hopping mad at the United States. They’re still taking their travel dollars elsewhere. They’re telling pollsters like Pew Research that they have more favourable views of China (44%) than they do the United States (33%). And that’s a new thing — Pew found that 57% of Canadians had a favourable view of the United States in 2023, with just 14% holding a favourable view of China. I’m not sure China has done very much over the last three years to deserve this increase in Canadians’ affection. Perhaps the Chinese just look better by comparison.
A new poll from Abacus Data shows that Canadians don’t want to back down, even if they increasingly roll their eyes at Trump’s sabre-rattling. In negotiating a new CUSMA deal, Abacus found that, given a choice between two options, 69% chose “Canada should hold firm on its positions, even if that means the uncertainty lasts longer”. Only 20% opted for “Canada should be willing to make compromises to reach an agreement sooner”. Canadians prefer a little more pain than to give in to Trump.
This gives Carney some leverage — if he chooses to use it. Canadians are still willing to be patient and give him the benefit of the doubt on his handling of Trump. Abacus recently found that, among the 31% of Canadians who list “Donald Trump and his administration” as one of their top three issues, the Liberals hold a whopping 48-point lead over the Conservatives on being the party who would do best on the issue (63% to 15%).
This also gives Carney and the Liberals a winning issue to carry them through the summer. The Liberals are still leading by a wide margin in the polls but their lead has been shrinking over the last few weeks. Another tangle with Trump could be what Carney needs to widen that gap again.
Of course, Canadians’ patience will not hold out forever. And, sooner or later, the Carney government will be judged on the longer term impact of its negotiating strategy. But, for the time being, Trump is the problem for Canadians and Carney remains the choice to handle him.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of another byelection win for Wab Kinew, plus the Ontario PCs face a major controversy, a recall petition fails, a new leader steps up to take over a minor party and we get clarity on where Naheed Nenshi will run in the next Alberta election.
An update on the federal polls, plus Canadians’ views on Iran, pipelines, climate change, wildfires and submarines and new poll numbers on Alberta independence and the Ottawa mayoral race.
#EveryElectionProject: Prince Edward Islanders opted not to “be in the swim” in the 1919 provincial election.
Upcoming milestone for Danielle Smith.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Kinew’s NDP wins landslide in byelection
The Manitoba New Democrats easily held the seat of The Pas—Kameesak in Tuesday’s byelection, scoring another big win with increased vote share and sending another signal to the opposition Progressive Conservatives that next year’s scheduled provincial election could go very badly.