Weekly Writ 6/11: Liberal softness, NDP lift and Conservative drift
The polling landscape clarifies somewhat.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Thursday morning.
Reading this in your email inbox and having trouble viewing any of the charts? To optimize them for your device, click/tap the charts or view them on thewrit.ca.
After last week’s head-scratching divergences in the polls, the new numbers published over the last seven days did not provide much more clarity — though, thankfully, they also didn’t add to the confusion.
In addition to the two trackers from Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research, we also got a new national poll from Abacus Data and a Quebec-only poll from Synopsis Recherche for La Presse.
As expected, the trackers reverted to the mean somewhat. Though Liaison had the Liberals dropping one more point to 40%, Nanos had them back up to 42%. The NDP, meanwhile, went from 16% last week in Liaison’s poll to 15% this week. These are insignificant movements, but they suggest some movement back to the average rather than a further divergence. Adding to this was that Abacus had the Liberals down to 44% and the NDP up to 11%, putting its numbers closer to the trackers than to Léger’s poll from last week. This suggests the new normal might be the Liberals being in the low-to-mid-40s rather than the mid-40s, and the NDP increasingly scoring in the double-digits.
The Conservative numbers should remain concerning to Pierre Poilievre. All three of the national polls had the Liberals down since when they were last in the field with independent samples (two weeks ago for Liaison, four weeks ago for Nanos). But the Conservatives got no real lift. Instead, they dropped to 29% in the Nanos poll. With the exception of two EKOS polls conducted earlier this year, this is the first survey to put the Conservatives below 30% since August 2022 — before Poilievre became party leader.
Even the relatively good Abacus poll gets worse for the Conservatives when looking at only those certain to vote. Surprisingly, the NDP’s number holds firm at 11%. But the Liberals get bumped up to 46% and the Conservatives slide to 33%.
The Synopsis poll shows little movement from when it was last in the field a month ago, though it does have the Liberals down two points. This would seem to add to the general trend of Liberal softness in support — if we conclude that Léger might have been on the high-end of things with the party’s 50% nationwide.
The field dates don’t quite match and it is largely coincidence, but all three of the national polls have the Liberals down three points, even if that movement is not statistically significant.
The across-the-board gains for the New Democrats (and the loss of support for the Conservatives in the Nanos poll) are statistically significant, so that does add some heft to the notion that the NDP is getting a lift at the moment. Whether it is momentum, though, is another matter entirely, as both the Liaison and Nanos trackers do not show forward movement in the shorter term, only compared to where things were two and four weeks earlier, respectively.
While the party might be up a few points, perceptions of Avi Lewis haven’t shifted much. Abacus has his positive/negative ratings at 17% to 26%, with no real change in those numbers since he became NDP leader. Similarly, Liaison has Lewis’s numbers holding steady over the last few weeks at 25% favourable, 21% unfavourable. This lack of progress for the leader might act as a weight on the NDP’s support.
Signs of softness in Mark Carney’s support might also act as a weight on the Liberals. Abacus finds that government approval is down seven points since mid-May to 52%, its lowest level since January. Carney’s positive/negative impressions were 51% to 30%, down from 56% to 26% a few weeks ago. Liaison, too, has Carney’s approval down four points in the last two weeks to 55%.
Granted, those are still good numbers that any political leader would envy. But they do suggest that the Liberals might be returning to a level of support closer to where they were on election night in 2025.
Which, normally, would be good news for the Conservatives. But they are down significantly from where they were a little over a year ago and despite all the movement amongst the parties to the left of them, the Conservatives haven’t budged. Poilievre’s personal ratings haven’t shifted either, with Abacus giving him a 37% to 45% positive/negative impression score (which means no real change for months), while Liaison has his favourable/unfavourables at 37% to 51%, again signalling no change of note. Nanos has Poilievre 26 points behind on preferred prime minister, 49% to 23%.
This is not a situation that should worry the Liberals much for the time being — they can afford to see the NDP performing a little better if the Conservatives aren’t getting themselves off the mat. For now.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of a new leadership race in New Brunswick, a fifth candidate for the OLP leadership and a denied former leadership candidate in Manitoba.
Polls show the UCP in the lead, but Danielle Smith getting failing marks on the separation issue. Plus, the B.C. Conservatives get a lift post-leadership, a new poll shows broad support for expansion of Alberta’s energy industry and new numbers put the PQ comfortably ahead as the Quebec Liberals fall back.
#EveryElectionProject: The Liberals see off the CCF, Social Credit and John Diefenbaker in the 1938 Saskatchewan election.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
NB Green leader David Coon resigns
David Coon, leader of the New Brunswick Greens since 2012, announced last week that he would step away from his post as soon as his party chooses his successor. By the standards of the Greens, they will be big shoes to fill.