Weekly Writ 5/14: With stability in Ottawa, the action is in the provinces now
Provincial politics is entering a period of tumult and uncertainty.
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Politics tends to lose its frenetic energy when a majority government descends upon Ottawa. But while Mark Carney’s Liberals seem safe from worrying about an election in the short term, that doesn’t mean that politics is about to get boring.
Sure, there are still some elements of intrigue and uncertainty at the federal level — byelections, floor-crossings, defections and resignations, not to mention leadership questions — but most of the action seems to now be moving to the provincial scene.
That action will impact federal politics sooner than later. But there’s already a few things to circle on the calendar.
October is going to be an incredibly important month. Quebec is holding its provincial election on October 5 and the outcome is entering “unpredictable” territory. The polls (more on that below) suggest the Parti Québécois and Liberals are neck-and-neck and that the Coalition Avenir Québec might just be able to claw itself back into the race — or at least into some level of relevancy. The PQ is still favoured to win, however, because of its broader support among francophones. But a majority is far from a certainty, or even a likelihood, which might put Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s referendum plans on ice. If the PQ manages to get its majority, then the country stands a very good chance of finding itself in the midst of a Quebec referendum within the next four years and all the uncertainty that will come with it.
An Alberta referendum is already scheduled to be held in the short term. The province is already holding a referendum on nine immigration-related questions on October 19. There is a very strong possibility that Premier Danielle Smith will make it a nice round list of 10 referendum questions, with the 10th being on Alberta independence, though a court quashing the separation petition in a ruling yesterday complicates matters.
Polls suggest that a referendum on Alberta independence is unlikely to pass (see poll below). But referendum campaigns can easily take on a life of their own. And even a defeat of an independence push will not necessarily put it to bed, as the 1980 Quebec referendum — won rather handily by the No side with nearly 60% support — has demonstrated. Whatever the outcome, the referendum will put intense pressure on the governing United Conservative Party, which is nominally on the federalist side but with a membership (and voter base) that seems to be more separatist than not.
This referendum hangs over the discussions between Smith and Carney and colours the federal government’s shift on pipeline policy. In some ways, the provincial tail is wagging the federal dog on this.
These are the two hinge moments (to borrow a Carney phrase) that will be the most important for the country in the coming months. But politics in other provinces are also in transition, with repercussions that will be felt over the coming years.
There’s the B.C. Conservative leadership race, which will select a potential premier-in-waiting (as discussed last week) by the end of the month. That contest has pushed the party rather far to the right on Indigenous reconciliation and DRIPA, which looks likely to be a dominant issue in British Columbia politics in the run-up to the next scheduled election in 2028 (or earlier, should David Eby’s razor-thin majority government fall).
In Ontario, the Liberals are choosing their next leader in November. The turmoil within the leadership contest itself (more on that below) is dramatic enough. But polls suggest the Ontario Liberals have closed the gap on the PCs, meaning the next leader of the party will have a real opportunity to put pressure on Premier Doug Ford. When governing parties are up against the wall, that’s when they can be the most unpredictable.
Politics in Canada’s four largest provinces are in flux at the moment and that uncertainty will have (and already has had) some repercussions for Prime Minister Carney in Ottawa. A dull, stable majority government? Not so much.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News out of the Ontario Liberal leadership race as Nate Erskine-Smith loses the Scarborough Southwest Liberal nomination, plus a new electoral map for Quebec and some new numbers on Indigenous voting in that province. There has also been a floor-crossing in Nova Scotia and some municipal results out of New Brunswick.
Polls show the Parti Québécois and the Liberals are still neck-and-neck in Quebec, with the CAQ showing signs of life. Plus, an update on the newest federal polls, a survey about pipelines, new Alberta polling numbers and more signs of trouble for Doug Ford’s PCs.
#EveryElectionProject: Lomer Gouin wins the 1912 Quebec election.
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Erskine-Smith loses nomination, OLP leadership bid now in question
The best-laid schemes of mice and Ontario Liberal leadership contenders…
Nate Erskine-Smith’s hoped-for path to the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party hit a bit of a roadblock on the weekend, when the Beaches—East York MP failed to win the OLP nomination in the riding of Scarborough Southwest by a margin of just 19 votes — a result Erskine-Smith feels should be invalidated if the allegations of irregularities he has highlighted are proven to be true.