Weekly Writ 10/9: Would an NDP run for 2nd be worth the risk?
Two polls put the NDP ahead of the Liberals, but that doesn't mean Jagmeet Singh should precipitate an election.
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It finally happened.
The polls have been bad for the Liberals for over a year now. But it was the Conservative Party, not the NDP, that had reaped nearly all of the benefits. That kept the Liberals in second and the NDP in third.
With the Liberals dropping from the mid-20s to the low-20s in more and more polls, the Liberals finally got themselves into dangerous territory where the NDP didn’t need to have much of a surge to overtake them.
And last week, it happened.
Only just, though. When Nanos Research released its update to its four-week rolling poll last Tuesday, the NDP was technically in second place with 21.6% to 21.5% for the Liberals. That 0.1-percentage point gap is statistically insignificant (about as insignificant as it can get), but 21.6% is more than 21.5%, and the NDP was accordingly placed in the second rank.
Then Mainstreet Research came out with a comparatively comfortable 0.6-point margin in the NDP’s favour, 19.9% to 19.3%. Again, it was a statistically insignificant difference. But the NDP was in second again.
Three polls might make a trend — but we haven’t seen that third one just yet. This week’s update to the Nanos rolling poll now has the Liberals back “in front”, 21.8% to 21.3%.
But these two polling firms aren’t the first ones to put support for the Liberals and NDP within the margin of error. The September polls from the Angus Reid Institute and Abacus Data had the Liberal edge over the NDP at just one and two points, respectively.
(September polls from Léger, EKOS Research and Ipsos did not assess the gap between the two to be as small as this, however.)
Regardless of who is really in second and in third, it’s clear enough that the Liberals have lost enough support to now make a 19% or 21% poll result possible, a bar that the NDP has been able to reach. If the Liberals’ true support was around 25%, we shouldn’t expect to see many, if any, 19% or 21% results. If they are down to, say, 23%, then we should expect to see a 19% or 21% from time to time.
That would be the first reason for Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats to hold their horses and not get carried away by precipitating an election call. In all likelihood, the NDP is not in second place in national voting intentions.
The second reason for the NDP to think twice before unleashing the dogs of electoral war is that some of their recent gains in some polls might be nothing more than provincial mirages. Nanos, in particular, has shown very strong NDP results in Western Canada, especially in British Columbia. Wab Kinew is popular in Manitoba. The Saskatchewan NDP is making things competitive and David Eby’s B.C. NDP still has at least even odds of winning on October 19. If the federal NDP’s better scores in Western Canada are due to a provincial afterglow, then Singh could find that his hope for second place is built on a foundation of sand.
The third reason the NDP might want to think again is that narrowly finishing in second place in the popular vote is by no means a guarantee of finishing second in the seat count. Even a third-place showing is not a sure thing.
That’s because the NDP still remains far behind in third in Atlantic Canada, trails by a fair amount in most polls in Ontario and is going nowhere in Quebec. The NDP’s gains in Western Canada might be good for boosting their national support numbers, but they will do little to win the NDP many seats when the Conservatives are dominating that part of the country.
There’s also the Bloc Québécois to take into account. If the Liberals are finishing third in the popular vote, they have likely tanked in Quebec. That would probably boost the Bloc well above 40 seats. How the NDP wins more than that when the Conservatives are even stronger than the NDP in the NDP’s best region is hard to fathom.
Of course, there is always the prospect of gains to come — that if the NDP has gotten itself into this position, than maybe a strong campaign can push them past the Liberals in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and ensure, at the very least, a second-place finish in the popular vote and potentially the role of the official opposition.
But that would require the New Democrats to have confidence that they can pull it off. There is nothing in the polling data that suggests that Singh is well-positioned to make stellar gains in his third election. Sure, leaders can always over-achieve. But in the realm of “anything can happen”, that means they can also disappoint.
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Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on which ridings are setting up to be the tipping points in the three ongoing provincial election campaigns, plus a Quebec Liberal takes the lead in caucus endorsements.
Polls show movement for the Liberals and the NDP while the Conservatives hold steady, and the B.C. NDP takes the lead in a new poll. Plus, new provincial polling data out of Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and Manitoba.
The U.S. election projection remains unchanged after two weeks, with Kamala Harris being the narrow favourite.
Big majorities for Doug Ford, Wab Kinew and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a tiny one for Naheed Nenshi, if the election were held today.
The last Liberal win in Saskatchewan in the #EveryElectionProject.
Milestones for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Danielle Smith and Tony Wakeham.
IN THE NEWS
Three elections, three tipping points
As I wrote in the Election Writ on Monday, the three ongoing provincial elections are all unpredictable in one way or another — there’s the tight race in British Columbia, the question of Liberal vote inefficiency in New Brunswick (what kind of provincewide lead do they need?) and the disagreement in the polling in Saskatchewan.
But, based on where things stand in the polls and The Writ’s seat projections, let’s delve into what would be the tipping-point ridings in each province.
In British Columbia that riding is, perhaps counter-intuitively, Boundary-Similkameen. I say counter-intuitively because this race is likely to be decided in the Lower Mainland, not the southern B.C. Interior. But the NDP’s Roly Russell won this riding in 2020 with about 50% of the vote. The combination of Liberal and Conservative vote in this riding was around 48%, so if the Conservatives consolidate all of that vote and the NDP comes down a little, this could flip. If it does, it is the kind of seat that helps put the Conservatives in a position to win a majority government — thanks to additional gains in the Lower Mainland.
On the other side of the coin, if the NDP is holding this, they are probably winning enough seats to retain power.
Over in New Brunswick, the tipping-point right now is Fredericton North. The Liberals need to make significant gains in Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton to win a majority, and a seat like Fredericton North is just the kind of riding that would put them over the top.
The PCs’ Jill Green won this seat with around 42% of the vote (on the new boundaries), with the Greens in second with 31% and the Liberals in third with 18%. The Liberal campaign might be helped in attracting those Green votes as Luke Randall, who ran as a Green in 2020, is running as a Liberal in 2024.
Finally, in Saskatchewan the tipping-point seat is in the Regina suburbs. If the NDP forms a government in Saskatchewan, it is likely because they have swept Regina, Saskatoon, the Far North and Prince Albert, along with winning one riding in Moose Jaw. But those Prince Albert and Moose Jaw seats might be easier to win than some of the outlying suburbs in Regina and Saskatoon.
So, if the NDP is winning Regina Wascana Plains, that probably means they are winning the 31 seats needed for a majority government. It’s a tall order, as the Sask. Party won here by 27 points in 2020. But if Christine Tell, the Sask. Party incumbent, holds on, her party is likely holding on to power.
ELECTION NEWS BRIEFS
Charles Milliard, one of the candidates running to be the next leader of the Quebec Liberals, landed two new endorsements from caucus: André Fortin and Madwa-Nika Cadet. Fortin was sometimes touted as a potential leadership candidate, so landing that endorsement looks like a coup for Milliard. As the MNA for Pontiac in the Outaouais, he’s also the only Quebec Liberal that does not represent a riding in the Montreal area. So far, Milliard is the only candidate with multiple endorsements from caucus.
THIS WEEK’S POLLS
Conservative lead holding as Liberals, NDP on the move
It’s been two weeks since the last Weekly Writ, and too many polls have been published to go over in detail. Right now in the CBC’s Poll Tracker that I am running (individual seat projections are available here for subscribers), the Conservatives are leading with about 43% support. The Liberals have now fallen to under 23%, their lowest point so far, while the NDP is up slightly to 18%.
Those polls mentioned in the introduction that have the New Democrats vying for second place have moved the dial, but this serves as a reminder that these are, in the end, just two individual polls. Most other polls don’t put the NDP ahead of the Liberals nationally. We’ll need more results from different pollsters to move the NDP into second place in the average.
But there’s little doubt that things continue to go poorly for the Liberals and that, if any movement is taking place, it’s not at the top of the table. Two surveys that were published after this week’s Poll Tracker update show us again how that is the case.
Léger, polling for the National Post, puts the Conservatives ahead with 42% and the Liberals trailing at 25%. The NDP stands at 17% in this poll — hardly gunning for second place, though that is up two points from Léger’s last survey. This might be an indication that the NDP is indeed trending upwards, but the question is where the starting point of that trend is located. Picking up two or three points from a base of 15% to 16% is different than picking up the same amount from a base of 18% or 19%.
The latest iteration of the four-week rolling poll from Nanos Research does not show the NDP continuing its rise, as it pegs the Liberals at 22% to the NDP’s 21%. The Conservatives lead in the poll with 40%.
Will this be the usual reversion to the mean that we routinely see from Nanos, or is the recent Liberal downturn and NDP uptick part of a new reality? This is what often happens with Nanos’s polling, in large part due to the methodology that adds 250 responses to the four-week sample, dropping the oldest set of 250 responses. Nanos oscillates back and forth, but it’s when the oscillation sets in at a new level that a trend has developed.
B.C. NDP moves ahead in Léger
A new poll by Léger released on Tuesday afternoon puts the B.C. New Democrats back in front of the Conservatives. While it’s just one poll — the daily tracking from Mainstreet shows stability — there are some morsels in the survey that bode well for the NDP.
The poll gives the NDP 47% support, a gain of four points over the last week. The Conservatives were down four points to 42%, while the NDP was down one point to 9%. When you look at the trendline before the exclusion of undecideds, it seems that the NDP’s gains came not only at the expense of the Conservatives, but also among the undecided and uncommitted voters.
The NDP holds a three-point lead in the electorally-decisive Metro Vancouver area, but this could be the latest of a series of back-and-forth fluctuations. It is hard to see any prolonged trends in either the Lower Mainland or on Vancouver Island in Léger’s polling.
If there is a trend, it could be in the Interior. Léger finds that the Conservatives have dropped eight points over the last two weeks while the NDP has gained nine. The region is now nearly tied.
David Eby’s personal numbers are better than John Rustad’s, with a net +5 favourability rating. Rustad is a net -8.
These are all promising signs for the NDP, but there is one finding in the poll that should make them worry a little. In earlier surveys, the Conservatives were doing well among the youngest cohort of voters, suggesting they could have difficulty getting out their vote. Now, Léger finds the NDP holds a 12-point lead among people under the age of 35. This could mean the NDP will have difficulty matching their polls. The party is still ahead among voters 55 or older (by three points), but if the NDP’s voter base reverts to its traditionally-younger structure, a five-point provincewide polling lead might not be enough to win.
POLLING NEWS BRIEFS
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives are holding their lead in Ontario, according to the Angus Reid Institute. The PCs have 40% support, followed at length by the Ontario NDP at 25% and the Liberals at 23%. Despite this lead in voting intentions, Ford still has a net -33 approval rating. The NDP’s Marit Stiles is a net -15 while the Liberals’ Bonnie Crombie is a net -22. The ace-in-the-hole for the Ford PCs has long been the unpopularity of the alternatives.
In Quebec, the Parti Québécois leads in a new Pallas Data survey with 34%, followed by the Coalition Avenir Québec at 22%, the Liberals at 18%, the Conservatives at 14% and Québec Solidaire at 12%. These numbers suggest stability in voting intentions in the province.
Wab Kinew’s New Democrats hold a huge lead in Manitoba with 56% support to 34% for the PCs, according to Probe Research. The Manitoba Liberals have sunk to just 4% support.
The United Conservatives lead in Alberta with 50% support, according to a poll by Cardinal Research. The NDP trails with 43% support. The NDP is ahead in both Calgary and Edmonton, however.
The Weekly Writ’s U.S. Election Update
Despite not having updated the projection for two weeks, things haven’t shifted much at all. Kamala Harris’s national support is holding firm at 51%, where it has been since mid-September. Donald Trump’s sits at 48%, up a little bit from two weeks ago but largely consistent.
In the electoral college, Harris remains at 226 EVs, ahead of Trump’s 219. He’s up one vote as the second congressional district of Maine is now leaning his way, but otherwise things have not changed. Without the toss-ups, Harris is leading with 276 EVs to 262 for Trump.
IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY
I am running the CBC’s Poll Tracker with the seat projection and poll aggregation model I have developed over the last four federal elections (and multiple provincial campaigns in between). You can check out the Poll Tracker here. For this election, I am making the seat-by-seat projections available on The Writ here.
The Léger poll boosts the NDP in B.C., putting the New Democrats back ahead — but by just a single seat, 47 to 46.
Better polling for the Ontario New Democrats boosts them back into official opposition status in the projection, but Ford’s PCs are also on track to win about as many seats as they currently hold at Queen’s Park.
In Quebec, the PQ’s strong support in the Montreal suburbs puts them solidly in majority position, with the Liberals holding on to enough of their base on the island of Montreal to keep them in second place. The CAQ now drops to fourth, one seat behind QS.
And in Alberta, the NDP’s lead in Calgary and Edmonton puts them narrowly ahead of the UCP in the seat count — but it is the narrowest of margins (one seat!).
Updates to Saskatchewan and New Brunswick reflect the seat projections published in Monday’s Election Writ.
The seat estimates for provincial legislatures are derived from a swing model that is based on trends in recent polls as well as minor tweaks and adjustments. Changes are compared to last week. Parties are ordered according to their finish in the previous election (with some exceptions for minor parties)
UPCOMING ELECTIONS AND BYELECTIONS
Provincial elections
October 19 - British Columbia
October 21 - New Brunswick
October 28 - Saskatchewan
Yet to be scheduled
CA - Cloverdale–Langley City (to call by November 30)
AB - Lethbridge West (to call by January)
QC - Terrebonne (to call by March)
CA - Halifax (to call by March 2)
(ALMOST) ON THIS DAY in the #EveryElectionProject
Ross Thatcher wins again
October 11, 1967
(This was originally posted on October 11, 2023.)
A political dynasty went by the wayside in the 1964 election as Ross Thatcher’s Liberals took power in Saskatchewan, ending the 20-year reign of the CCF. After two decades of North America’s first socialist government, Thatcher promised to make Saskatchewan “the greatest private enterprise province in Canada”.
But Thatcher, a former CCFer himself, knew the electoral limits of his appeal to slay socialism and so he promised to maintain the ground-breaking Medicare system that had been introduced by Tommy Douglas’s government and brought to fruition by his successor, Woodrow Lloyd.
A little over three years after Thatcher’s upset win, the Saskatchewan economy was buzzing. Unemployment was at rock-bottom levels. In 1966, Saskatchewan no longer qualified for equalization payments and became a “have” province, buoyed in part by the explosion of the potash industry. Though the Liberals’ short term in office was not responsible for all of these positive changes, Thatcher was more than happy to take full credit for Saskatchewan’s success.
And to try to capitalize on it. There were warnings of a recession looming, so Thatcher decided to go back to the polls while the going was good. He said that “a new mandate is needed … to assure potential investors in Saskatchewan of a political climate which is essential to encourage continuation of our private enterprise progress.”
The Liberals presented an unambitious program, promising little more than “sound government” and “down to earth common sense” in its administration of Saskatchewan. Thatcher also renewed his call to Socreds and Conservatives to continue backing the Liberals to keep the CCF out, as they had done in 1964.
That party’s name was in the process of changing, but Woodrow Lloyd was still at the helm. The federal New Democrats had been formed in 1961 and were being led by Douglas, but the CCF brand still had a lot of mythical power in agricultural Saskatchewan, where the labour movement had less sway. The old name would finally disappear shortly after the election, but in 1967 it was still the CCF-NDP.
The party’s platform was far more ambitious than the Liberals’, and Lloyd and the CCF-NDP criticized the government for selling out the province to outsiders and corporations — arguing “that we put people first, and that we make things, production and dollars serve the people.”
Lloyd made a play for younger voters, pitching significant investment in post-secondary education. He also had a renewed organization behind him, as he had spent the last three years getting the party into better shape and attracting new candidates, including a young Roy Romanow.
But the going would be tough for the CCF-NDP, especially as the Progressive Conservatives under Martin Pederson were fading away as a serious contender. Both opposition parties got help from their federal cousins, but while Lloyd got a visit from Douglas, Pederson did not get to share a platform with Robert Stanfield or former prime minister John Diefenbaker.
The Canadian Annual Review for 1967 felt “the campaign was slow and all but devoid of issues and incidents”, but it did have its dark side, according to Dennis Gruending in his biography of future premier Allan Blakeney, who was an CCF-NDP MLA seeking re-election in 1967:
“The campaign became nasty, with the NDP’s newspaper, The Commonwealth, calling Thatcher a tyrant. He took the bait, waving the newspaper at rallies and shouting, neck veins bulging, that the socialists were running a campaign of malice, hatred, and fear. There was also an NDP whisper campaign on the doorsteps which accused Thatcher, a diabetic who periodically had to be hospitalized, of being an alcoholic.”
But the bottom line was that things seemed to be going pretty good in Saskatchewan. The economy was diversifying, incomes were up and unemployment was down. There was little need to turf a one-term government that appeared to be performing well. And while there was a certain charisma to Thatcher, Lloyd was more of a thinker, organizer and policy wonk — not the type to inspire a wave of enthusiasm in the CCF-NDP’s favour.
It turned out to be a close election, just as it had been in 1964, with support for both the Liberals and CCF-NDP increasing. The Liberals finished on top with 45.6% of the vote to the CCF-NDP’s 44.4%. But thanks in part to a new electoral map designed during the Liberals’ time in office, the governing party increased its seat total by three to 35. The CCF-NDP fell two seats to 24.
The Liberals’ edge over the CCF-NDP was felt primarily in the rural ridings of southern Saskatchewan, but the party was also able to win a few seats in Regina and Saskatoon.
Pederson and the PCs, however, were wiped out as their vote was cut nearly in half.
Lloyd decided to stay on as leader even though he had lost his second consecutive election. Internal divisions would eventually lead to his resignation a few years later ahead of the 1971 campaign.
That would prove to be a tough one for Thatcher the Liberals. Shortly after winning an election on a message of continued prosperity for Saskatchewan, the Liberals brought in an austerity program in anticipation of the economic troubles that would hit the province — troubles that would catch up to and ultimately defeat Thatcher’s Liberals in the next election.
MILESTONE WATCH
A trio of milestones
One premier and two aspiring premiers have some upcoming anniversaries to celebrate.
Today marks four years since Paul St-Pierre Plamondon became leader of the Parti Québécois. At the time, it seemed like the PQ was in a death spiral and St-Pierre Plamondon, largely unknown when he became leader, had quite the task ahead of him. Four years later and he’s the premier-in-waiting.
Friday will mark two years in the Alberta premier’s office for Danielle Smith. Her victory in the UCP leadership came as a bit of a surprise, but it was the culmination of an unlikely comeback story. It looked like her tenure would prove short as she trailed in the polls shortly after assuming the premiership, but Smith prevailed in the 2023 provincial election.
Next Monday will mark one year since Tony Wakeham became leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador Progressive Conservatives. It’s been a good year for him with two upset byelection victories. He should get a chance to take the premier’s chair away from Andrew Furey within the next 14 months.
That’s it for the Weekly Writ this week. The next episode of The Writ Podcast will be dropping on Thursday. As always, the episode will land in your inbox but you can also find it on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting apps. And don’t forget to subscribe to my YouTube Channel, where I post videos, livestreams and interviews from the podcast!