Election Writ 10/7: How the candidate slates could impact the elections
Where candidates are and aren't running in B.C. and New Brunswick could prove decisive.
Welcome to the Election Writ, a special-edition newsletter to get you up-to-date on the ongoing campaigns in New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and British Columbia.
The elections are now off and running in all three provinces. Two of them are genuine toss-ups while the third is still a bit of a black box.
In British Columbia, the polls give the Conservatives a very narrow lead — too narrow to say with confidence whether or not John Rustad’s party could win the most seats. There’s also the unknown of how the Conservative vote will be distributed across the province. Will it look like the B.C. Liberal vote of past elections, or will there be a few surprises in store?
There have been plenty of polls in B.C., but not so in New Brunswick or Saskatchewan. But, barring a big surge for either the Liberals or the PCs, the outcome in New Brunswick was always going to be a toss-up. The electoral map makes for unpredictable results.
Then there is Saskatchewan, where the few polls that have been published in the run-up to last week’s official writ drop have been inconclusive. Either the Sask. Party is safe or it isn’t — there isn’t much overlap between the polls that award the governing party a 10-point lead and those that put the gap at a single point. Whereas clarity will probably not come in New Brunswick even with more polls, Saskatchewan’s campaign could dearly use a few more soundings by pollsters to clear up the disagreement.
So, strap yourselves in! The next few weeks will decide who wins and who loses in these three provincial campaigns.
Scheduling note: Due to Thanksgiving, the Election Writ will be published next Tuesday.
Now, to what is in this instalment of the Election Writ:
News on candidate slates and their potential impact on the election campaigns, plus the big debate in B.C. nears.
Polls show a very narrow lead for the Conservatives in B.C., while a new survey puts the Liberals ahead in New Brunswick.
Two parties are in the running to win the most seats in each of the three campaigns if the elections were held today.
This week in New Brunswick and Saskatchewan election history.