On the surface, very little changed last night — but that doesn't things won't change
It was fun watching the live stream last night. Interesting to hear the pollsters and pundits banter without the boundaries of the networks. The biggest winner may have been the polls!
"The consensus view is that Trudeau has fought his last election and O’Toole will not be given a chance at another one. That means the two biggest parties — the only two that have ever governed Canada — could have new leaders, and all the change that could come from that."
Who's consensus? Another election could be triggered in the next year +.
The dust has settled that way? Where is that information coming from?
I'm wondering if the system has now entered grid lock in terms of the various parties having firm bases but little room for growth towards their goals (CPC being gov, Bloc representing a majority of Quebec, NDP being a serious contender, Libs winners but increasingly almost entirely to urban fortresses which denies the majority status). It seems there are some noticeable shifts on the edges - GPC collapse, steady gains for PPC-but this isn't affecting the overall picture. Perhaps we are back to a version of political reality in Canada from the 1960s with Pearson-Diefenbaker and the numerous minority parliaments back then. Maybe its going to take an external shock to shake things up - a new charismatic leader (like Trudeau was in '13) or event which dramatically changes peoples' priors about society, economics and foreign relations.