It was fun watching the live stream last night. Interesting to hear the pollsters and pundits banter without the boundaries of the networks. The biggest winner may have been the polls!
"The consensus view is that Trudeau has fought his last election and O’Toole will not be given a chance at another one. That means the two biggest parties — the only two that have ever governed Canada — could have new leaders, and all the change that could come from that."
Who's consensus? Another election could be triggered in the next year +.
The dust has settled that way? Where is that information coming from?
The punditocracy seems to have concluded this will be Trudeau’s last election. I wonder how likely another election really is in the short-to-medium term. I think the Liberals will be unlikely to risk another early call, which puts the onus on the opposition. Will they be willing to be blamed for precipitating an election when it nearly cost the Liberals this one?
Yes, (although history, by definition cannot, repeat itself and thinking something that happened in the past has predictive power is for intellectual lightweights) I believe Pierre Trudeau was not slated to run another election after '79. I believe Trudeau will need to fire inner cycle folk. And then fight the next election on three critical pillars...
And no one knows that those three things are yet,,,,
I'm wondering if the system has now entered grid lock in terms of the various parties having firm bases but little room for growth towards their goals (CPC being gov, Bloc representing a majority of Quebec, NDP being a serious contender, Libs winners but increasingly almost entirely to urban fortresses which denies the majority status). It seems there are some noticeable shifts on the edges - GPC collapse, steady gains for PPC-but this isn't affecting the overall picture. Perhaps we are back to a version of political reality in Canada from the 1960s with Pearson-Diefenbaker and the numerous minority parliaments back then. Maybe its going to take an external shock to shake things up - a new charismatic leader (like Trudeau was in '13) or event which dramatically changes peoples' priors about society, economics and foreign relations.
I think the BQ block of seats makes majorities really difficult. If you remove 30 (low end) seats from the equation, then getting to 170 seats doesn't mean winning 50%+1 for a majority, it means more like winning 56% (again low end) of the rest of the seats. This seems like a big structural hurdle, especially for the LPC.
Yeah, the bloc has definitely denied the Libs a majority in the last two elections I would say. Mind you the 90s the Libs had massive majorities with 37-40% of the pop vote even with the Bloc garnering 50% pop vote/ at 2/3rds of the seats in Quebec, but that was when the Right was divided and the Libs were almost sweeping all the seats in Ontario.
Yes, and MacKenzie King had majorities too. Minority governments require greater consensus.
Your argument that the system needs to be changed is amusing. The only person who going to be willing to change the system is the person who benefits from the current structure of the system.....The blood seat and embarassing moments that Trudeau has undergone guarantee that he's not going to give up the prize for the pain endured.
It was fun watching the live stream last night. Interesting to hear the pollsters and pundits banter without the boundaries of the networks. The biggest winner may have been the polls!
"The consensus view is that Trudeau has fought his last election and O’Toole will not be given a chance at another one. That means the two biggest parties — the only two that have ever governed Canada — could have new leaders, and all the change that could come from that."
Who's consensus? Another election could be triggered in the next year +.
The dust has settled that way? Where is that information coming from?
The punditocracy seems to have concluded this will be Trudeau’s last election. I wonder how likely another election really is in the short-to-medium term. I think the Liberals will be unlikely to risk another early call, which puts the onus on the opposition. Will they be willing to be blamed for precipitating an election when it nearly cost the Liberals this one?
Yes, (although history, by definition cannot, repeat itself and thinking something that happened in the past has predictive power is for intellectual lightweights) I believe Pierre Trudeau was not slated to run another election after '79. I believe Trudeau will need to fire inner cycle folk. And then fight the next election on three critical pillars...
And no one knows that those three things are yet,,,,
I'm wondering if the system has now entered grid lock in terms of the various parties having firm bases but little room for growth towards their goals (CPC being gov, Bloc representing a majority of Quebec, NDP being a serious contender, Libs winners but increasingly almost entirely to urban fortresses which denies the majority status). It seems there are some noticeable shifts on the edges - GPC collapse, steady gains for PPC-but this isn't affecting the overall picture. Perhaps we are back to a version of political reality in Canada from the 1960s with Pearson-Diefenbaker and the numerous minority parliaments back then. Maybe its going to take an external shock to shake things up - a new charismatic leader (like Trudeau was in '13) or event which dramatically changes peoples' priors about society, economics and foreign relations.
I think the BQ block of seats makes majorities really difficult. If you remove 30 (low end) seats from the equation, then getting to 170 seats doesn't mean winning 50%+1 for a majority, it means more like winning 56% (again low end) of the rest of the seats. This seems like a big structural hurdle, especially for the LPC.
Yeah, the bloc has definitely denied the Libs a majority in the last two elections I would say. Mind you the 90s the Libs had massive majorities with 37-40% of the pop vote even with the Bloc garnering 50% pop vote/ at 2/3rds of the seats in Quebec, but that was when the Right was divided and the Libs were almost sweeping all the seats in Ontario.
Yes, and MacKenzie King had majorities too. Minority governments require greater consensus.
Your argument that the system needs to be changed is amusing. The only person who going to be willing to change the system is the person who benefits from the current structure of the system.....The blood seat and embarassing moments that Trudeau has undergone guarantee that he's not going to give up the prize for the pain endured.
Same for every office holder.