1. Will the Grit-NDP supply agreement survive the year? False. No, it won't. I agree with your reasoning, Eric. No election, but no ongoing agreement.
2. Will the Tories poll over 40%? No, they won't. Mr Pollievre is too polarizing. There is no growth opp past their base.
3. Will the Grits poll over 35.5%? Yes, they will. Mr Trudeau is Ronald Reagan-like teflon. The Grits ebb and flow, as the NDP does but the opposite, splitting 60%.
4. Will the Tories poll over 25% in Quebec? No. Mr Pollievre is not popular there, much like Mr Bernier isn't.
5. Will there be an election this year? No. Mr Singh won't force it and Mr Trudeau wants to keep the option to take a walk in his father's woods.
6. Byelections @3.5? Over. Ther are too many old people. Some will retire, or resign.
7. Alberta, who wins? NDP over 43.5. Ms Smith is too polarizing, like Mr Pollievre. She is really a known and safe quantity.
8. Alberta turnout @68%? Under. Centrist UCPs may stay home rather than vote for Ms Notley.
9. Alberta Popular vote @44%? Over, as UCP members stay home and a third party may emerge.
10. UCP seats in Edmonton? None.
11. UCP seats in Calgary @16.5? Under, but the first line was pretty close. NDP wins and that means Calgary. Ms Smith's base is rural, but urban.
12. NDP seats in Manitoba @31.5? Over. Manitoba goes with Alberta in an urban wave against PCs (and equivalent).
13. NDP popular vote @44%? Under. I predict bleeding into third parties, which are an option in Manitoba.
14. Liberal vote in Manitoba @15%? Under, as Pierre forecast. Pollsters overestimate third parties in the early days.
15. PC seats in PEI @19.5? Over. They are better at seats than %.
16. Green seats in PEI @4.5? Under. Greens can't seem to keep a party intact from one campaign to the next - anywhere. Like the 1930's Spanish Anarchists. Viva la muerta!
17. Premiers who resign or lose @2.5? Under. Alberta and Manitoba and done. I could be wrong about one, and that spot gets taken by the surprise.
18. Leafs get past Round 1? No. Defence and goaltending matter too much in the playoffs. Not a lot of 9-7 games in the playoffs.
19. Biden & Trump both actively campaiging? No. One or the other disappears. Combined age almost 160? Really?
I'm not participating in all the Grab Bag. The Rhino's promise to abolish the law of gravity seems appealing, no? Thanks for this episode, Eric.
I'm playing along, Eric.
1. Will the Grit-NDP supply agreement survive the year? False. No, it won't. I agree with your reasoning, Eric. No election, but no ongoing agreement.
2. Will the Tories poll over 40%? No, they won't. Mr Pollievre is too polarizing. There is no growth opp past their base.
3. Will the Grits poll over 35.5%? Yes, they will. Mr Trudeau is Ronald Reagan-like teflon. The Grits ebb and flow, as the NDP does but the opposite, splitting 60%.
4. Will the Tories poll over 25% in Quebec? No. Mr Pollievre is not popular there, much like Mr Bernier isn't.
5. Will there be an election this year? No. Mr Singh won't force it and Mr Trudeau wants to keep the option to take a walk in his father's woods.
6. Byelections @3.5? Over. Ther are too many old people. Some will retire, or resign.
7. Alberta, who wins? NDP over 43.5. Ms Smith is too polarizing, like Mr Pollievre. She is really a known and safe quantity.
8. Alberta turnout @68%? Under. Centrist UCPs may stay home rather than vote for Ms Notley.
9. Alberta Popular vote @44%? Over, as UCP members stay home and a third party may emerge.
10. UCP seats in Edmonton? None.
11. UCP seats in Calgary @16.5? Under, but the first line was pretty close. NDP wins and that means Calgary. Ms Smith's base is rural, but urban.
12. NDP seats in Manitoba @31.5? Over. Manitoba goes with Alberta in an urban wave against PCs (and equivalent).
13. NDP popular vote @44%? Under. I predict bleeding into third parties, which are an option in Manitoba.
14. Liberal vote in Manitoba @15%? Under, as Pierre forecast. Pollsters overestimate third parties in the early days.
15. PC seats in PEI @19.5? Over. They are better at seats than %.
16. Green seats in PEI @4.5? Under. Greens can't seem to keep a party intact from one campaign to the next - anywhere. Like the 1930's Spanish Anarchists. Viva la muerta!
17. Premiers who resign or lose @2.5? Under. Alberta and Manitoba and done. I could be wrong about one, and that spot gets taken by the surprise.
18. Leafs get past Round 1? No. Defence and goaltending matter too much in the playoffs. Not a lot of 9-7 games in the playoffs.
19. Biden & Trump both actively campaiging? No. One or the other disappears. Combined age almost 160? Really?
I'm not participating in all the Grab Bag. The Rhino's promise to abolish the law of gravity seems appealing, no? Thanks for this episode, Eric.