With the deadline for eligibility now gone, it’s time for the Conservative leadership contestants to start converting members, both old and new, into voting supporters. But with a pool of more than 600,000 members, this race has suddenly gotten much, much bigger than it has ever been before.
Though, with Pierre Poilievre’s campaign claiming half of those members, is there much of a race left to run? Do Patrick Brown and Jean Charest still have a path to victory? And what role could Leslyn Lewis still play?
To discuss what the numbers mean and what’s next for the leadership contest, I’m joined this week by Tim Powers of Summa Strategies, Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star.
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch my discussion with Stephanie, Tim and Chad on YouTube.
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Great show learned a lot. Not sure if I dreamed it but thought I heard last week that Patrick Browne has said he would not run in a CPC lead by Poilievre. Is this true? It Could leave the CPC in a divide (as if their not split up enough already) especially if Brown comes in second or third. The headline won't be Poilievre's win but Brown refusing to run.
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it!
Brown said so on Power & Politics yesterday after we recorded. Here's the story:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/patrick-brown-leadership-election-poilievre-1.6483559
Frankly, I'm not surprised Brown would say he wouldn't run, and it would have been more surprising if he did run. I can't see how Brown could be allowed within a Poilievre Conservative caucus after his campaign has repeatedly called Brown a liar.
Any thoughts on Jordan Peterson's (seeming) endorsement?
No doubt it has helped Poilievre among Peterson's following. His campaign has been successful in tapping into some very engaged groups (crypto, anti-vaccine mandates) that probably explain the ballooning membership numbers. I doubt, though, that these are going to be long-term recruits for the party.
Makes sense. I hope it's about channeling all the emotion into participating rather than agitating at the sidelines. Too much of that for too long isn't a good prospect. Is Poilievre the right candidate for the right time? I guess we'll see.