The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone! It’s election day in British Columbia, so you should expect a final analysis from me later today. Then, tune in tonight for our live coverage of the results! Philippe J. Fournier and I will break down the results as they come in, starting at 11 PM ET / 8 PM PT. You can watch the livestream here:
As it will be a late night, I may or may not have a results analysis up tomorrow morning. If not, I should have something on Monday.
Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
THE WRIT
On Monday, I wrote about what the final polls of the Alberta referendum campaign were suggesting was about to happen. And most of them were right! Léger, Research Co., Pollara, Ipsos and Abacus Data put support for remaining in Canada between 74% and 78%. The result was 75%. Ipsos takes the cake as it had 75% support among decided voters, but all five of these pollsters did a great job. The Angus Reid Institute and Mainstreet Research, however, put support at just 66% — a sizeable nine-point miss.
The B.C. Election Tracker was updated throughout the week and might still get a final update this morning. Keep an eye out!
The Federal Vote and Seat Projections were updated with new polls from Liaison Strategies, Léger, Mainstreet Research and Nanos Research. The Liberals are currently favoured in an astounding 241 seats, with the Conservatives leading in only 66.
THE NUMBERS
The Numbers: Alberta’s vote and the battle for BC - As the polls had predicted, the Remain side won the Alberta referendum in a landslide, as Albertans opted for the status quo in their province. But in next-door British Columbia, voters might be about to back a change of a different kind. This week on The Numbers, we break down the results of Alberta’s referendum and how the polls performed. We also take a look at where some of the last polls of the B.C. election campaign stand as the NDP’s David Eby looks to be in trouble as his party falls behind Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives. Plus, we have federal numbers to dissect (what is going on with the Liberals in Alberta?) and new polls from elsewhere in the country, including a neck-and-neck race in Toronto — and Saskatchewan? WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Special Episode of The Numbers: The B.C. Projection Meeting - In this special, members-only episode of The Numbers, we go through all 93 of British Columbia's ridings and make a call ahead of tomorrow's election — will each seat go to the NDP, Conservatives or Greens, and will it be a toss up, a close race, or a sure thing? WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
ELSEWHERE
I joined Tim Powers on his show on VOCM to discuss the B.C. election. You can listen to it here. (My segment starts at the 14:40 mark.)
I was also on Radio West on CBC Radio to chat about the vote. You can listen to it here.
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.