The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone! I hope you have a fun and relaxing Thanksgiving weekend spent with family and friends.
Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
THE WRIT
After my final analysis of the Quebec election campaign, I took a look at the results, as well as how the polls and my projection model did. Read the Quebec election post-mortem here.
The British Columbia Election Tracker was updated a few times during the week with new polls from Pollara, Mainstreet Research, the Angus Reid Institute and Liaison Strategies. Now that the Quebec election is in the rearview mirror, I hope to have more analysis of the B.C. election in the coming weeks. For now, the B.C. Conservatives win the most seats in 74% of the model’s simulations.
The Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker was updated with new numbers from Léger. Support for remaining in Canada was at 70% in the poll, which is also where it now stands in the aggregate.
The Federal Vote and Seat Projections were also updated with new polling from Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research. The Liberals are now projected to win 236 seats to just 69 for the Conservatives.
THE NUMBERS & LES CHIFFRES
The Numbers: Quebec wipeout, BC nail-biter - This week on The Numbers, we break down the results of the Quebec election and what it means for politics in the province going forward. We also lay out the state of the race in British Columbia, where Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives are making David Eby’s New Democrats sweat. Plus, we chat about the latest federal polls, where things stand in Toronto’s mayoral race and highlight some new numbers out of Atlantic Canada. Could the Greens elect their first government next year in Prince Edward Island? WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Les chiffres : PQ minoritaire, la CAQ éclate - Pour ce nouvel épisode du balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe décortiquent les résultats de l’élection québécoise, qui s’est conclue par une victoire du Parti québécois — mais avec seulement 28 % des voix et un gouvernement minoritaire. Le PLQ formera l’opposition officielle, tandis que le PCQ fera enfin son entrée à l’Assemblée nationale par la grande porte. Où le PQ a-t-il échappé la majorité? Les libéraux devraient-ils être satisfaits de leur performance? Et qui, des conservateurs ou de Québec solidaire, exercera la balance du pouvoir pour aider le PQ ? ÉCOUTEZ ICI
ELSEWHERE
I did some Quebec election results analysis on Tuesday, here for CPAC (en français) and here for CBC Radio Noon Quebec.
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.