The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone!
Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
🟡 THE WRIT
The projection model went through a re-design over the last few weeks, with a new approach toward projecting uncertainty and the probability of various electoral outcomes. I explained the changes in detail here.
With those changes, the Canadian Election Projection now shows the Liberals winning between 208-247 seats, with the Conservatives winning between 59-95, the Bloc between 15-27 and the NDP between 13-17. The latest update included new polls from Abacus Data, Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research. A new poll was also published on Thursday by Research Co., but it hasn’t been added to the model yet (I prefer not to update the model with only a single new poll).
🎙️ THE NUMBERS PODCAST
The Numbers: Have we hit Peak Carney? - Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals remain at the top of the polls. But after hitting highs not seen for any party or prime minister in a decade or more, are Carney and the Liberals coming down from their peak? This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest polls that have the Liberals back to their 2025-level support. We also look at some polling that gauges how Canadians are reacting to last week’s budget and re-assess last week’s byelection gut calls. Plus, we have new data out of Quebec that shows some early problems for Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. We then finish with an extended mailbag segment for our members. WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.