The Writ Drop is your weekly round-up of everything you might have missed in political and election news, federal, provincial and municipal polling.
Good morning everyone!
Here’s what you might have missed from me over the last week:
🟡 THE WRIT
Last Saturday, I took a look at the Q3 fundraising figures. The headline? The Liberals beat the Conservatives for the first time since Pierre Poilievre became leader. And it wasn’t just because it was a good quarter for the Liberals; it was also a bad quarter for the Conservatives. Read it here.
Then on Sunday, Prime Minister Mark Carney called six byelections. Here’s my first run at where those byelections stand.
The Federal Vote and Seat Projections were updated with new polling numbers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies. Here’s the vote projection in the three provinces where byelections will be held on December 7:
Ontario: 50.4% LIB, 34.0% CON, 11.4% NDP
Quebec: 46.9% LIB, 26.3% BQ, 17.3% CON, 7.2% NDP
Saskatchewan: 52.3% CON, 30.6% LIB, 13.0% NDP
🎙️ THE NUMBERS & LES CHIFFRES
The Numbers: Carney looks for gains, Poilievre hopes to hold in byelections - The political stakes are high in the six federal byelections scheduled for December 7. Mark Carney’s majority will survive intact regardless of the outcome, but his Liberal Party is looking to make gains at the expense of the Conservatives, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois, putting the other three leaders on the defensive — especially Pierre Poilievre, as his party’s polling and fundraising numbers continue to slump. This week on The Numbers, we dissect the contests in all six byelections. We also take a look at new fundraising figures that show the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in years, as well as the latest polls. Plus, The Quiz is back! WATCH OR LISTEN HERE
Les chiffres : Carney remportera-t-il les « mi-mandats » canadiennes ? - Alors que les Américains se rendent aux urnes pour leurs élections de mi-mandat, pas moins de six élections partielles fédérales ont été déclenchées par le gouvernement Carney, dont trois au Québec : Laurier—Sainte-Marie, Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie et Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton. Le Bloc québécois peut-il conserver Saint-Hyacinthe et espérer faire des gains à Montréal ? Le NPD peut-il sauver son seul siège à l'est de Winnipeg ? Et les libéraux peuvent-ils poursuivre sur leur lancée après leurs victoires dans Terrebonne et Chicoutimi—Le Fjord ÉCOUTEZ ICI
📺 ELSEWHERE
On Sunday, I joined Ian Hanomansing on Cross Country Checkup to discuss the byelection calls. You can listen here.
I also joined VOCM’s The Tim Powers Show on Monday to chat about the byelections. You can listen to it here, starting at 7:52.
Now let’s take a look at some of the latest developments and new polls that I didn’t get a chance to get to this past week.