Hi! I think the projection for Peterborough-Kawartha shows that the PCs can win a majority by leading the Liberals by only 3.4 points (not despite being led by 3.4 points), that’s still a good vote efficiency when compared with the federal Tories.
Thanks, someone caught this earlier and I've removed it from the post on the website, but I can't fix it in people's inboxes, unfortunately! I was copying-and-pasting from somewhere else and didn't look closely enough. Sorry!
Eric: how much do you think the Conservative Leadership fundraising numbers are impacted by when candidates entered the race? Poilievre announced much earlier than everyone else, so is his lead driven by that?
That's definitely a factor, particularly for Brown since it doesn't look like he had tried for any mass fundraising. But they all started accepting donations at around the same time, so it's hard to say.
Hi! I think the projection for Peterborough-Kawartha shows that the PCs can win a majority by leading the Liberals by only 3.4 points (not despite being led by 3.4 points), that’s still a good vote efficiency when compared with the federal Tories.
Darn it, you're right. I had a lot going on yesterday and this one flew right by me.
The red highlighted electoral district is not Peterborough-Kawartha but Brantford-Brant.
Thanks, someone caught this earlier and I've removed it from the post on the website, but I can't fix it in people's inboxes, unfortunately! I was copying-and-pasting from somewhere else and didn't look closely enough. Sorry!
Eric: how much do you think the Conservative Leadership fundraising numbers are impacted by when candidates entered the race? Poilievre announced much earlier than everyone else, so is his lead driven by that?
That's definitely a factor, particularly for Brown since it doesn't look like he had tried for any mass fundraising. But they all started accepting donations at around the same time, so it's hard to say.