The Weekly Writ for Jul. 5: Why the byelections don't matter for the NDP

Plus fundraising figures for 2022, who would win the most seats if an election were held today and some Saskatchewan NDP history.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.

I’m a big believer in the value of byelections as barometers of where things stand between general elections. These are real voters casting real ballots — they aren’t ephemeral polls or the opinions of pundits and columnists.

While that doesn’t mean they are predictors of the future (though, more often than not, they do predict whether a party will go up or down in the next election), they do provide us some clues as to what is really going on.

But you have to understand the context of byelections if you’re going to draw the proper conclusions.

A questionable conclusion to draw is that the results of the four byelections held on June 19 show that the New Democrats are in serious trouble, as was suggested in a recent article in the Hill Times and in other post-byelection commentaries.

Across the four byelections in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, Portage–Lisgar, Oxford and Winnipeg South Centre, the NDP’s share of the vote dropped by an average of 6.4 points compared to the 2021 election. The NDP slipped in all four contests. If we add their 4.8-point drop in Mississauga–Lakeshore in December, the NDP is 0-for-5 in byelection gains/losses, losing an average of 6.1 points per contest.

Seems bad! No other party has lost as much as the NDP.

But here’s the thing: the NDP nearly always does poorly in byelections.

In the 25 federal byelections held since 2015, the NDP has seen its vote share drop in 23 of them. Only in Burnaby South in 2019, when Jagmeet Singh was on the ballot, and in Ottawa–Vanier in 2017, when the NDP had a good local candidate in Emilie Taman, did the NDP increase its share of the vote. Simply put, if there’s a byelection, we should expect the NDP to take a hit.

What’s more, those hits don’t tend to mean much.

In 2020, the NDP lost an average of 4.7 points in the two byelections held that year in York Centre and Toronto Centre. But in the next general election in 2021, the NDP’s share of the vote in these two ridings went up by an average of 2.1 points compared to their 2019 results.

In the byelections held between the 2015 and 2019 elections, the NDP lost an average of 5.9 points. But in 2019, the NDP did about two points better in those ridings than they did in the byelections. While the NDP’s vote share dropped in 18 of 20 byelections between 2015 and 2021, it dropped in general elections held in those same ridings in just eight of 20.

I think it’s absolutely fair game to look at the results for the Liberals and the Conservatives and draw some conclusions about how things are going for those two parties. But we should give the NDP a pass on their poor results.

Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:

• News out of parties’ annual financial statements and some provincial updates out of Ontario.

• Polls show the Conservatives in front nationally, plus we get an update on the provincial scene in the three biggest provinces.

• Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would win the most seats if the election were held today.

• Kanata–Carleton riding profile ahead of the July 27 byelection.

• Blakeney and Romanow vs. the Waffle in the #EveryElectionProject.

• Justin Trudeau reaches an elite milestone.

IN THE NEWS

Spending money to make money

The annual party returns have begun to be posted to the Elections Canada website, providing a glimpse of the financial state of parties at the end of 2022.

The Conservatives are in good shape. They had $23,007,000 in contributions last year, coming from 110,000 individual contributors. Added to that is the $4,479,000 in transfers to central party coffers, nearly all of that coming from the party’s cut from the 2022 leadership contestants’ fundraising.

It’s worth noting that the Conservatives report far higher sums spent on fundraising than the other parties. According to the return, the Conservatives spent $6,362,000 on fundraising, suggesting they earned $3.62 in donations for every dollar spent on fundraising. That’s not as good as the $5.69 return the Liberals got on every dollar spent (they report a fundraising expense of $2,578,000), or the $25.13 return per dollar spent by the New Democrats, who reported only $249,000 spent on fundraising.

The Conservatives spent about $5,146,000 on salaries and benefits, as well as $190,000 on polling. The party ended with $12,981,000 cash in the bank, a tidy sum to say the least.

The Liberals raised $14,677,000 from 54,000 contributors, and had another $235,000 in transfers to central party coffers. The Liberals spent about as much as the Conservatives did on salaries and benefits ($5,050,000), though that takes up a bigger proportion of fundraising. Another $124,000 was spent on polling and the party ended 2022 with $3,283,000 in the bank.

The New Democrats took in $6,258,000 from 30,000 contributors and had another $51,000 in transfers. They spent $2,989,000 on salaries and benefits, representing about 48% of their fundraising. (That share was 22% for the Conservatives and 34% for the Liberals.) The party spent virtually nothing on polling, while it ended the year $1,322,000 in the red — about $2.3 million in cash but about $3.6 million in loans still on the books.

When thinking about whether the NDP wants to start another election, that red number might be more important than any of the byelection results.

The extra fun that comes from the annual returns is that we get to see how the smaller parties that don’t have to file quarterly are doing.

Of those who have had their returns posted (it can take awhile for them all to trickle in), the Christian Heritage Party comes out on top with $351,000 from 845 contributors. Much of that went to paying the $225,000 in salaries and benefits for CHP staffers. Its revenue from memberships suggests there were 325 members who renewed or bought their three-year memberships in 2022, suggesting a total membership of around 900 to 1,000. This would line-up with the number of contributors.

Next is the Marxist-Leninist Party (splitters!), who took in $99,000 from 119 contributors. Their membership revenue suggests around 210 members ponying up $10 for a membership card.

Rounding out the list is the Marijuana Party, which raised $1,300 from three contributors, and the Veterans Coalition Party which filed a null report.

I’ll update next week on any other returns that are posted.

ELECTION NEWS BRIEFS

Two provincial Ontario byelections were scheduled for July 27 in the ridings of Scarborough–Guildwood in Toronto and Kanata–Carleton in Ottawa. These byelections will fill the vacancies left by the resignations of former PC MPP Merrilee Fullerton and Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter.

Adil Shamji, Liberal MPP for Don Valley East, announced his bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership on Tuesday. Sabrina Nanji over at Queen’s Park Observer has the details on the team behind his campaign. He joins Nate Erskine-Smith, Ted Hsu, Bonnie Crombie and Yasir Naqvi, who are officially registered with Elections Ontario.

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THIS WEEK’S POLLS

Ipsos shows Conservatives moving ahead, but…

A survey newly-published by Ipsos for Global News shows the Conservatives leading nationally with 37%, up four points since Ipsos was last in the field in February. The Liberals were down one point to 32%, while the New Democrats were down two points to 16%.

Back in February, Ipsos had shown a tie between the Conservatives and Liberals at 33%. At that time, other polls were showing an average lead of about three points for the Conservatives, so Ipsos was then one of the pollsters showing comparatively better results for the Liberals.

In this poll, the Bloc Québécois, Greens and PPC followed with 8% (34% in Quebec), 3% and 2%, respectively.

While the toplines look good for the Conservatives, the regional numbers are not so promising. The Liberals and Conservatives were tied in Ontario at 38% apiece, while the Liberals were leading the Bloc by three points in Quebec. Only in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada do the Conservatives show strong results in places where they can gain new seats.

This has become a refrain for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. On the face of it, their polling looks good. But their upside is still relatively limited when it comes to the seat count. The party could use a little help from the NDP in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec.

Poll shows you have to like the alternative

The Angus Reid Institute continues the release of its quarterly polling data, focusing on the three biggest provinces (with some data for the others as well).

They give a good demonstration on how issues don’t always decide voting intentions.

British Columbia is the best example of this. ARI found that David Eby’s NDP government is getting awful marks on the top issues in the province. Fully 77% of British Columbians think the NDP is doing a poor or very poor job on health care. That rises to 79% on cost of living/inflation and 85% on housing affordability.

The B.C. NDP must be in real trouble, right? Wrong. The party led in the poll with 47% support to 29% for B.C. United. The Greens trailed in third with 14%.

How can that be? Part of the blame could be laid at the feet of B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon. Only 20% have a favourable view of him against 48% who don’t.

But it comes down to something very simple: it doesn’t matter how badly you think a government is handling an issue if you have even less faith that the opposition would do a better job. Politics comes down to a choice — it doesn’t just come down to government satisfaction ratings.

The same goes in Ontario. Again, roughly four-fifths of Ontarians think Doug Ford’s PC government is doing poorly on the top three issues, but the PCs still hold a nine-point lead over the NDP, 36% to 27%. The Liberals place third with 25%.

Of note in the results is the lack of evidence for much of a Ford-Trudeau voter in the province at the moment. Only 8% of Ontarians who said they voted for the federal Liberals in 2021 are currently backing the Ontario PCs.

In Quebec, François Legault’s ratings on these issues is glittering by comparison. “Just” 64% think the CAQ government is doing a bad job on health care. The CAQ leads in voting intentions with 33%, followed by the Parti Québécois at 22%, Québec Solidaire at 17%, the Liberals at 13% and the Conservatives at 12%. Note, though, that ARI has generally had lower results for the CAQ than other pollsters. Still, ARI is picking up the same trend of the PQ in second place as we’ve seen from Léger.

POLLING NEWS BRIEFS

Nanos Research finds the environment back in front as the top unprompted issue facing the country, as concern about jobs and the economy drops. At about 15%, it still ranks below the 20.5% the environment registered just before the pandemic.

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IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY

The Liberals move up a little bit at the expense of the Bloc, NDP and Greens in their estimated seat count, but the Conservatives remain in the best position to form a minority government as the Liberals and NDP do not combine for a majority.

A few tweaks in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. In all three provinces, the incumbent governments are still comfortably in majority territory.

The following seat estimates are derived from a uniform swing model that is based on trends in recent polls as well as minor tweaks and adjustments. Rather than the product of a statistical model, these estimates are my best guess of what an election held today would produce, based both on the data and my own experience observing dozens of elections since 2008.

Changes are compared to last week. Parties are ordered according to their finish in the previous election (with some exceptions for minor parties).

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RIDING OF THE WEEK

Kanata–Carleton (Ontario)

Could a century of winning be about to come to an end in Kanata–Carleton?

The Ontario provincial byelection taking place on July 27 will put the Progressive Conservatives’ record in this eastern Ontario riding to the test. The party has won it in every contest held since 1923 — the last representative for this riding who wasn’t elected as either a PC or Conservative was a United Farmer. Something tells me they aren’t poised for a comeback.

Instead, it’s the Liberals who hope to win this seat. It won’t be easy.

Merrilee Fullerton won Kanata–Carleton with 43.6% of the vote in 2022 despite her spotty record as minister of long-term care during the worst days of the pandemic. The NDP’s Melissa Coenraad finished second with 24.2%, followed by Shahbaz Syed of the Liberals at 23.4%.

The Greens, New Blues and Ontario Party captured 5.5%, 2.4% and 0.9% of the vote, respectively.

Kanata–Carleton is located in the western suburbs of the City of Ottawa. It includes Kanata, a residential and commercial zone that exploded over the last few decades thanks to the 90s tech boom and the construction of the Ottawa Senators home arena — much to the chagrin of Senators fans living at the other end of the city. Most voters in the riding live in Kanata, but the seat stretches out to include the rural areas to the west, including small centres like Carp, Fitzroy Harbour and Constance Bay.

Results of the 2022 Ontario election around Ottawa (election-atlas.ca)

While this region has been solidly PC for 100 years, the federal Liberals have held Kanata–Carleton since 2015. Jenna Sudds was the last to win it in 2021, beating the Conservative candidate by three points. Karen McCrimmon won it by larger margins in 2015 and 2019 before resigning as an MP.

What gives the Ontario Liberals hope is that McCrimmon will be their candidate.

She certainly gives the party instant credibility in the riding. A retired lieutenant-colonel in the Canadian Forces, McCrimmon was one of only two candidates in the disastrous 2011 federal election to increase her party’s share of the vote in the Ottawa area. When she was elected in 2015, her vote share jumped again by about 25 points. Of the neighbouring ridings, only in Nepean did the Liberals match that kind of gain.

Her departure in 2021 cost the Liberals some support, but not much. Sudds did 1.3 points worse in Kanata–Carleton than McCrimmon did in 2019, only slightly more than the average 0.8-point drop for the Liberals in neighbouring ridings.

Nevertheless, McCrimmon gives the Liberals a real shot in what will likely be a low-turnout byelection.

The polls in Kanata will decide the outcome. Sudds won nearly all of them in 2021, while the Conservatives won all the rural polls. The PCs can count on those rural polls delivering for them (though McCrimmon was able to win some polls in 2015 and 2019 around Constance Bay on the Ottawa River), so it will come down to the suburban polls in Kanata.

The Liberals have a tough hill to climb. Syed finished 20 points behind Fullerton in the 2022 provincial election. The most recent Abacus Data poll for Ontario shows that there has been a swing of about seven points from the PCs to the Liberals in eastern Ontario. McCrimmon will have to make-up the other 13 points on her own to have a chance.

Sean Webster will be trying to keep the seat for the PCs. He was recently responsible for government and stakeholder relations for cannabis company Canopy Growth.

Coenraad, a medical laboratory technician, will run again for the New Democrats. It’ll be her fourth time carrying the party banner in provincial and federal elections since 2019, while Steven Warren, a political science student at the University of Ottawa, will run for the Greens.

On July 27, I’ll do a livestream for the Ontario byelection results in Kanata–Carleton and Scarborough–Guildwood on my YouTube Channel. Mark your calendars!

(ALMOST) ON THIS DAY in the #EveryElectionProject

Blakeney defeats Romanow

July 4, 1970

Tommy Douglas is widely remembered as the father of Canada’s universal health care system after first introducing it in Saskatchewan. But it was actually his successor, Woodrow Lloyd, who turned the proposal into law, navigating it through the legislature and facing down the province’s striking doctors.

Lloyd got little thanks for his efforts. When he took his CCF government to the polls in 1964 (the Saskatchewan CCF had not yet followed the national party in adopting the New Democratic moniker), Lloyd went down to defeat against Ross Thatcher’s Liberals. Lloyd just wasn’t the firebrand and charismatic Prairie populist that Douglas was, and he followed up his defeat in 1964 with another in 1967.

Patience with Lloyd within the Saskatchewan NDP (as it was now finally known) had run out in 1970. In the federal convention the year before, Lloyd had voted in favour of a motion put forward by the Waffle that reflected the group’s socialist, radical views, greatly influenced by the anti-Vietnam War politics of American youth.

The motion didn’t pass, but the Waffle was starting to have a big influence within the national party — and the Saskatchewan wing, too. Members of the ‘Old Left’ and more pragmatic centrist wings of the party were not happy, and after a contentious caucus meeting in March 1970 Lloyd offered his resignation.

That put Allan Blakeney in an odd position.

Blakeney had long been a loyal supporter of Lloyd and had been deeply involved in the Medicare file as minister of health. Minutes were not kept, but Blakeney does not appear to have spoken out in defense of Lloyd at the caucus meeting, and the distaste he felt at how Lloyd was forced to resign led him to hesitate to run to replace his old colleague.

But Blakeney had always had his eye on the leadership and he was the first to announce. He had the experience to be leader. Though just 44, he had been a Regina MLA since 1960 and had been named to cabinet by Douglas before he had left provincial politics to take over the federal NDP.

After about a month, another candidate stepped forward: Roy Romanow. Just 30 (though he told the newspapers he was a few years older), Romanow had been first elected in Saskatoon in the 1967 election and was seen as a bright rising star within the Saskatchewan NDP. But he was also seen as representing the centre or centre-right of the party.

“[Romanow’s] campaign was modelled on the new era of television politics in the United States,” writes Dennis Gruending in his biography of Allan Blakeney, Promises to Keep. “He was photogenic, and had an easy way with people. There was a glitz and excitement to his campaign that Blakeney couldn’t match.”

With neither Blakeney nor Romanow being a spokesperson for the left, it was inevitable that other candidates from that side of the party would emerge. There was Don Mitchell, even younger than Romanow, who stepped forward as the unofficial candidate of the Waffle group, pitching public ownership of Saskatchewan’s farmland with a so-called “Land Bank”. There was also George Taylor, a venerable standard-bearer of the Old Left and the Regina Manifesto and a veteran of the international brigades of the Spanish Civil War. Taylor was there to avenge Lloyd’s defenestration.

While Blakeney put the emphasis on experience and Romanow on style, Mitchell focused on policy in the series of town hall debates that took place during the campaign. He might have pulled Blakeney and Romanow further to the left than they would have liked — the two eventually said his Land Bank idea wasn’t so bad after all — but the contest was always going to be between Blakeney and Romanow, between the establishment of the party and a new modern direction.

Some 1,600 people gathered at the Regina Armouries for the vote. The Waffle vs. Establishment battles continued in the contest for party president, and the win by the Establishment boded well for Blakeney. It was a shock, then, when Romanow narrowly emerged as the front runner on the first ballot with 35.3% of delegates’ votes to 33.6% for Blakeney. Mitchell took 22% and Taylor dropped off after taking 9.2% of the vote.

On the second round, Taylor’s votes split nearly evenly between the three other candidates, though Mitchell garnered more than either Blakeney or Romanow. The gap was closed between the leading candidates, and Mitchell dropped off after the second ballot.

Romanow had spoken out against the Waffle and Blakeney was also seen as opposed to the movement, so Mitchell decided to abstain on the final ballot. Taylor, though, tried to gather the old guard of the left behind Blakeney. While a big chunk of Mitchell’s supporters indeed abstained, Blakeney got more than three votes for every vote gained by Romanow on the final ballot, and emerged with a narrow win: 53.8% to 46.2%.

With a little guidance from Douglas, who suggested that his turn would come later (and it would), Romanow urged the convention to make the decision unanimous. Allan Blakeney would be the next leader of the Saskatchewan NDP — and return the party to power in 1971.

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MILESTONE WATCH

Take a seat, Mike Pearson

Today, Justin Trudeau passed Lester Pearson as the fifth longest serving leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Pearson was leader of the Liberals from 1958 to 1968, leading the party into the 1958, 1962, 1963 and 1965 elections. He won the last two, but never secured a majority government of his own.

Only Wilfrid Laurier, Mackenzie King, Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chrétien have now served in the role longer than Justin Trudeau — an elite list, and a reminder of just how impressive (and overlooked) Trudeau’s longevity has proven to be.

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That’s it for the Weekly Writ this week. The next episode of The Writ Podcast will be dropping on Friday. As always, the episode will land in your inbox but you can also find it on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting apps. And don’t forget to subscribe to my YouTube Channel, where I post videos, livestreams and interviews from the podcast!