5 Comments

Why is there so much CPC stability? is this a function of their voters not being persuadable from the center? existing in their own media ecosystem (as in the US)?

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The Conservatives generally have the most solid chunk of voters who are more likely to not have second choices as those supporters of the other parties, who generally do not have the Conservatives as a second choice. So they are navigating a far narrower band than the Liberals or NDP.

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May be the wrong thread, but with this race tightening I am wondering if you have any insight on the West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast - Sea to Sky riding in BC. Liberals have won it the past 2 elections, with Conservatives and Greens being strong in 2019. In the recent provincial election the Green candidate lost the seat by only 16 votes to the BC Liberal incumbent. To throw things entirely on its head, this election the NDP have a 'star' candidate in Avi Lewis, a well known documentary filmmaker. There is even a letter, Greens for Avi, from many prominent environmental activists (David Suzuki being one) supporting him over the Green candidate. With 4 strong candidates and quite a diverse riding, will it really just be a two horse race between Liberals and Conservatives? Will the Conservatives benefit from a split vote of progressives between Green, NDP, & Liberal?

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I think it's noteworthy that even during the 2011 Layton miracle election, the NDP barely nudged into second place in West Van, and still couldn't break 25% of the vote. It would appear that the party has a ceiling, and while a decade can be a long time in politics, the odds that they're going to triple their share of the vote and soar out of fourth place seem long.

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I’d have to agree that while the Greens might boost Lewis I think it would be a stretch for him to win it unless the NDP keeps gaining in BC.

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