The Conservatives' B.C. problem
Federal Projection Update for June 23, 2026.
Why haven’t the Conservatives been able to rebound in British Columbia?
There haven’t been many changes in this week’s update to The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection, with the slow decline of the Liberals in the seat projection continuing this week (with a caveat). But while we’ve seen the Conservatives either stabilize or bounce back in most of the country, the party’s support seems to be stubbornly low in British Columbia.
Before we delve into that, here’s where things stand this week:
The Liberals sit at 44.6% in the vote projection (+0.2 since last week) and are leading in 209 ridings across the country, down two. However, their average projection — which takes into account potential polling error as well as the number of close races — is up 1.5 seats to 203.2. This means that while the Liberals might be leading in fewer ridings than last week, they are in a better position to win the seats where they are ahead than they were in last week’s projection.
The Conservatives are also up 0.2 points to 34.7% and are leading in 96 ridings (+2) and win an average of 110.3 seats in the projection (+0.4). The New Democrats have held steady at 10.6% and are still leading in 15 ridings, though their average projection has fallen 0.8 seats to 10.9.
The Bloc Québécois is down slightly in the average projection (from 18.3 to 17.3 seats), while the Greens have slipped 0.2 points nationally to 2%.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
But let’s get back to British Columbia, which seems to be an outlier from the trends — and not only for the Conservatives, who have fallen behind the Liberals here by a greater margin than anywhere else in the country except Alberta. What gives?