Seat Projection: Liberals 210, Conservatives 93
Federal Projection Update for July 28, 2026.
A little spice has been added to this political summer with the calling of three byelections for August 31, and I’ll dive into those three contests in the Weekly Writ on Thursday. But for now, let’s take a look at the latest projection from The Writ.
With only the two trackers (Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research) publishing their latest findings over the last week — and it’s been over a month since we’ve seen a poll from any other pollster, with the sole exception of Abacus Data — the projection is largely swinging around at the margins based on what those trackers are finding.
That being said, the latest update puts the Liberals back ahead by 10 points, with 44.8% (+0.6 since last week) to the Conservatives’ 34.9% (-0.6). The NDP trails in third with 10.4%, largely unchanged from last week. These numbers put the Liberals ahead in 210 seats across the country, a gain of seven over last week, while the Conservatives are down six to 93 seats. The Bloc is down one seat to 22, while the NDP and Greens are unchanged at 16 and two, respectively.
Taking into account the historical tendency of polls to over- and under-estimate support for certain parties, and the number of close contests involving each party, the model has the Liberals winning an average of 202.4 seats, their best showing since the June 30 update. The Conservatives win 108.2 seats, so even with the assumption that the Conservatives beat their polls the party is still looking at more than 30 seat losses.
On average, the Bloc wins 18.8 seats and the NDP takes 12.7, just over the threshold for recognized party status.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
What does the model say about the three byelections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano? Let’s take a quick look.