Polls give Liberals reason to celebrate on Canada Day
Federal Projection Update for June 30, 2026.
PROGRAMMING NOTE - With tomorrow being Canada Day, the Weekly Writ will be taking a break to admire the fireworks. The Weekly Writ will be back on July 9. A new episode of The Numbers will still land in your inbox on this coming Thursday. Have a safe and happy Canada Day! 🍁
As Canadians prepare to mark the 159th anniversary of Confederation, the Liberals have good reason to celebrate. They remain ahead in the polls, would win a large majority if an election were held today and appear to have shaken off some of their recent softness in support.
This week’s update to The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projections put the Liberals back up to 45%, a gain of 0.4 points since last week. The party is projected to be leading in 213 ridings, an increase of four, and win an average of 207.2 seats in the projection (also an increase of four).
While the Liberals were helped by the addition to the model of last week’s Léger poll that had the party at 48%, as we’ll see below this week’s two trackers were also showing the Liberals in a better position than they were a few weeks ago.
The Conservatives are treading water with 34.6%, a tiny decrease of 0.1 points from last week, but the uptick for the Liberals (particularly in the Prairies) pushed the Conservatives down four seats to 92, with their average haul, after taking into account potential polling error and the number of tight races, dropping 3.7 seats to 106.6.
After four weeks in double-digits, the New Democrats have dropped back below the 10% threshold and are projected to have 9.8% support, a sizeable slide of 0.8 points since last week. That hasn’t shifted the NDP from their projected lead in 15 seats, though their average projection has slipped 0.7 to 10.2 seats, pushing them further away from the 12 seats required for recognized party status in the House of Commons.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
The Bloc Québécois is largely unchanged from last week at 5.9% (25.9% in Quebec) and 17.5 seats on average in the projection. The Greens are up 0.3 points to 2.3% and their average seat win is up 0.2 to 1.5 in the projection. They had a few good numbers in British Columbia in particular this past week.
Since I won’t have the opportunity to delve into this week’s polls in the Weekly Writ on Thursday, I’ll do so here. But first, a quick look at how the regional portrait looks across the country — and how things have shifted since Canada Day one year ago.