Poilievre's multiple paths to a majority — plus which provincial premiers would lose today
The outcome of elections if they were held today in every province and across the country
Last summer, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives moved ahead of the Liberals in national polls. Over the fall, they moved even further ahead. As we enter the spring, the polls aren’t getting any better for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, leaving the Conservatives with multiple paths to a majority government when the next election is held.
That election isn’t scheduled to take place until October 2025, however, so much can change between now and then. But if the election were held today, Pierre Poilievre would become the prime minister.
And if elections were held in every province throughout the country, at least two incumbents would go down to defeat — and a handful of others would win landslide victories the likes of which we haven’t seen in decades.
Welcome to this second edition of If The Election Were Held Today, my twice-yearly report on my estimates of the outcomes of elections held both at the federal level and to fill every provincial legislature in the country. This is a deeper-dive into the seat estimates that I include in every instalment of the Weekly Writ, going into detail into the regions and individual ridings that would swing in a snap election.
These estimates are based primarily on the polls and a simple regional swing model, but also include my own adjustments and tweaks based on what I believe to be plausible results.
One big caveat on what follows: these estimates are based on what the outcome of an election would be if the election were held today, NOT in one, two, three or four years’ time. Things can and will change between now and election day. If election campaigns are marathons, we’re in many cases very far away from the final sprint that decides the winner. But this is where the runners are at this stage of each of their respective races.
Now, let’s get into it, starting with the federal scene and then going province-by-province in order of when they are next scheduled to go to the polls.
Conservatives in comfortable majority territory
When I last did this exercise, the Conservatives were only narrowly over the threshold for a majority government. No longer — the party is instead in a position to win a larger majority than Stephen Harper’s in 2011 or Justin Trudeau’s in 2015.