What a Conservative majority would look like
The outcome of elections held today in every province and across the country
If the election were held today, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would almost certainly win the most seats — and they’d have a good shot at a majority government, too.
Elsewhere, governments would be re-elected in every province save one, and in that exception it could be by the tightest of margins.
Welcome to this first edition of If The Election Were Held Today, my twice-yearly report on what I estimate would be the outcomes of elections held both at the federal level and to fill every provincial legislature in the country. This is a deeper-dive into the seat estimates that I include in every instalment of the Weekly Writ, going into detail into the regions and individual ridings that would swing in a snap election.
These estimates are based primarily on the polls, but also include my own adjustments and tweaks based on what I believe to be plausible results. So, they are not necessarily seat projections based entirely on a statistical model, but rather a numbers-based estimate of likely election outcomes with a dash of subjective gut-calls.
One big caveat on what follows: these estimates are based on what the outcome of an election would be if the election were held today, NOT in one, two, three or four years’ time. Things can and will change between now and election day. If election campaigns are marathons, we’re in many cases very far away from the final sprint that decides the winner. But this is where the runners are at this stage of each of their respective races.
Now, let’s get into it, starting with the federal scene and then going province-by-province in order of when they are next scheduled to go to the polls.