Ontario pushes Liberals higher in seat projection
Federal Projection Update for April 7, 2026
Liberals gathering in Montreal this weekend have lots to celebrate. Not only is the party just days away from securing a majority government if it sweeps the three byelections taking place on Monday, but the Liberals are also continuing to lead by a wide margin in the polls — and would win a huge number of seats if an election were held today.
While there hasn’t been a significant amount of movement over the last week in the polls, what has occurred has pushed the Liberals above the 220-seat threshold in the projection. They are now projected to be leading in 225 seats in the model, up 10 seats from last week. Most of those gains have taken place in one province: Ontario.
But there’s a caveat.
The Conservatives have dropped down nine to just 84 seats, their lowest level in the projection to date since the last election. The Bloc is unchanged at 22 seats while the NDP is up one to 10.
In the vote projection, the Liberals have ticked up 0.5 points to 46.3%, followed by the Conservatives at 33.8% (-0.3) and the New Democrats at 8.9% (-0.3).
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
But the key number to look at in this week’s update is the Avg. Projection, which takes into account expected over- or under-performance of each party in an actual election. While the Liberals have jumped 10 seats in the number of ridings in which they are projected to be leading, their average projection has only increased by 2.9 seats to 212.1 seats, while the Conservatives have slipped only 2.8 in the average projection to 102.2 seats. What gives?