One year after the election, picture is rosier for Carney (and is the NDP on the upswing?)
Federal Projection Update for April 28, 2026.
One year ago today, Mark Carney’s Liberals won re-election but fell just short of a majority government. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives managed their best results in decades and the New Democrats were devastated.
Since then, the Liberals have cobbled together a majority through floor-crossers and byelections, the Conservatives have seemingly lost their mojo and the New Democrats have replaced their leader. The odds of another election happening in the short or medium term has dropped significantly, even if the Liberals would easily secure an even bigger majority if they went to the polls today.
The Writ’s federal Vote and Seat Projection has the Liberals leading in 218 ridings and winning an average of 210 seats, a big gain from the 169 seats the party won a year ago. The Liberals have slipped back a little since last week, dropping 0.6 points to 45.7% and sliding in the seat projection, but that nevertheless keeps them in a very strong position.
The Conservatives have hardly budged at 34%, putting them 11.7 points behind the Liberals in the projection. The party is leading in 86 seats and wins an average of 103.2 seats in the projection, an increase of three and 3.6, respectively, since last week. That represents a big loss of seats compared to the 144 the Conservatives won a year ago.
The Bloc Québécois, at 6.3% nationally (27.8% in Quebec), is about where they were a year ago. They are leading in 22 seats and win an average of 19.6 seats in the projection, suggesting little change from April 2025.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
While it pales in comparison to the number of seat gains the Liberals would make, the biggest proportional gain since a year ago goes to the New Democrats. The party sits at 9.4% (+0.6 since last week), is leading in 15 seats (+5) and projected to win an average of 9.1 seats (+1.3). This puts recognized party status (12 seats) in reach of the NDP, but the party’s expected over-estimation in the polls suggests it might not be as easy as it appears — the NDP is leading in too many toss-ups for all of them to go its way.
The last week of polling has been pretty good for the New Democrats, relatively speaking, but there is also good reason for the NDP not to get too carried away with some of the numbers.