For what it's worth, if it's stressful and not enjoyable for you to make these granular predictions, I'd be just as interested in case studies of particularly interesting ridings, rather than a comprehensive assessment of the whole field!
I personally think think it's worth doing the seat ratings, just because it's useful to see if your priors are out of whack with what's actually happening, and to readjust those priors accordingly if they are.
I obviously think that you're a very smart person who is smarter than me about these things, but epistemic humility is important and putting one's cards on the table in the form of seat ratings is good.
I'm unsure of the Sackville-Cobequid prediction, the scale-tipping factor there wasn't party it was candidate. While both the NDP and PCs had strong candidates, the PC candidate was a very popular municipal councillor.
I believe this is one of those districts where the PCs will grow their share of the vote despite the NDP running the same candidate as in the by-election and despite the NDPs strong history there.
I haven't looked at how the boundaries changed to assess whether that might impact the outcome but I do not think this will be a contest.
Eric one of the reasons I subscribed for the year was seat projections for the upcoming NS and CA elections. Hope you keep them up. Been a fan of your work since the old website days and knew I couldn’t get through election season without you!
Hello I subscribed from USA! I love elections. I have been listening to Canadian election news for most of my life with a shortwave radio, LOL. I have less an interest in provincial races but good luck on the blog.
For what it's worth, if it's stressful and not enjoyable for you to make these granular predictions, I'd be just as interested in case studies of particularly interesting ridings, rather than a comprehensive assessment of the whole field!
I personally think think it's worth doing the seat ratings, just because it's useful to see if your priors are out of whack with what's actually happening, and to readjust those priors accordingly if they are.
I obviously think that you're a very smart person who is smarter than me about these things, but epistemic humility is important and putting one's cards on the table in the form of seat ratings is good.
I'm unsure of the Sackville-Cobequid prediction, the scale-tipping factor there wasn't party it was candidate. While both the NDP and PCs had strong candidates, the PC candidate was a very popular municipal councillor.
I believe this is one of those districts where the PCs will grow their share of the vote despite the NDP running the same candidate as in the by-election and despite the NDPs strong history there.
I haven't looked at how the boundaries changed to assess whether that might impact the outcome but I do not think this will be a contest.
Eric one of the reasons I subscribed for the year was seat projections for the upcoming NS and CA elections. Hope you keep them up. Been a fan of your work since the old website days and knew I couldn’t get through election season without you!
Hello I subscribed from USA! I love elections. I have been listening to Canadian election news for most of my life with a shortwave radio, LOL. I have less an interest in provincial races but good luck on the blog.