Manitoba leaning NDP but verging on toss-up

Grenier Political Report for Manitoba, E-92.

In just three months, will Manitobans re-elect Heather Stefanson’s Progressive Conservatives or will Wab Kinew’s New Democrats usher in a new administration in Winnipeg?

Right now, you have to give the edge to Kinew and the NDP. But the odds that the PCs might be able to hold on look better than they did when they had only one year to try to turn things around.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for Manitoba, E-92

While the PCs might be closing the gap, the New Democrats still have a wide lead in Winnipeg, have the more popular leader and have matched the PCs in fundraising, suggesting they can go toe-to-toe with the governing party. Turnout, however, could benefit the PCs. In the end, the election could come down to a handful of seats in the Winnipeg suburbs.

Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are still the narrow favourites to win in October.