Liberals still dominating but slide again in projection
Federal Projection Update for June 16, 2026.
For the third consecutive week, the Liberals have dropped in The Writ’s seat projection as some of the soaring numbers the party was putting up in the spring have come back down towards earth.
Nevertheless, the party remains at a very high cruising altitude.
The Liberals have dropped one percentage point in the vote projection since last week to 44.3%, giving them just under a 10-point lead over the Conservatives, who are up 0.6 points to 34.5%. This is the first time the Liberals have slipped below the 45% mark since the February 24 update of the projection.
These numbers put the Liberals ahead in 211 ridings across the country, a drop of eight, and net them an average of 201.7 seats (after taking into account the number of toss-ups and potential polling error).
The Conservatives now lead in 94 ridings, an increase of eight, and win an average of 109.9 seats (+6.4). That is the highest average seat wins for the party since early March.
The New Democrats sit at 10.6% in the vote projection, an increase of 0.6 points, and are leading in 15 ridings, unchanged from last week. They win an average of 11.7 seats in the projection, a jump of 0.7 that puts them just under the threshold of 12 required for recognized party status. Adding to the positive (relatively speaking) news for the NDP is that they have maintained double-digits in the vote projection for three consecutive weeks for the first time since before the election.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
The Bloc Québécois is largely unchanged from last week. It’s still leading in 21 seats in Quebec, but its average seat haul has dropped 0.4 points to 18.3 seats. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 2.2% and are down 0.2 seats to 1.4 on average, though they are projected to be leading in two — whether they’d really win them both is another question.
But what’s been behind most of the movement for the Liberals and the Conservatives? As usual, a lot of it comes down to Ontario.