Liberals lead by nine in projection update
Federal Projection Update for July 21, 2026.
The update to the Federal Vote and Seat Projection this week continues to show the Liberals leading by nine points over the Conservatives. But it also has the party slipping in the seat projection for the third week in a row.
The Liberals are at 44.2% in the vote projection, largely unchanged from last week. But the Conservatives are up 0.5 points to 35.5%, marking their third consecutive week of growth (they are up 0.9 points over that time). The party is also up two points since the June 2 update. This movement has dropped the Liberals to a lead in 203 ridings across the country, down 10 seats over the last three weeks, while the Conservatives are up seven seats over that period to 99.
Taking into account polling error and toss-ups, the Liberals win an average of 196 seats in the projection, down 2.3 seats from last week, while the Conservatives are up two seats to 113.6. That still puts the Liberals comfortably in majority territory (where they wind up in 89% of simulations), but they were as high as 215.5 seats little more than two months ago.
The New Democrats are down 0.6 points this week to 10.3% as both the Liaison and Nanos trackers, which have been the best pollsters for the NDP of late, have the party down. But the NDP is still leading in 16 seats and wins an average of 12.1 seats in the projection.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
The Bloc Québécois is at 27.2% in Quebec, enough to deliver them an average of 20.2 seats in the projection, while the Greens are holding at around 2%. They are leading in both Saanich—Gulf Islands and Kitchener Centre in the projection, but because of the Greens’ tendency to under-perform the polls, and the fact that neither of these seats are entirely safe for the party, the Greens only win an average of 1.2 seats. This means that in most simulations they win one or the other, but often not both.
Have you checked out the projection pages on TheWrit.ca lately? This is just a reminder that there are plenty of interactive graphics to play with on the pages for the national and regional projection and for the riding projections. They are interactive on both desktop and mobile devices and are an exclusive bonus for paid subscribers of The Writ. 👉 Take a peek now! 👀
Where are the other parties poised to make their seat gains — or suffer their losses? Let’s take a quick look.