Liberals hit highest point in the seat projection
Have we reached peak Carney, or could the ceiling be raised even further?
It was a relatively quiet week on the polling front, but the new numbers that were published have pushed the Liberals to their highest point in The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projection.
The Liberals are projected to be leading in 227 ridings across the country, a gain of three since last week and they highest the party has been in the model — not by a lot, mind you, as the party hit 226 seats in the April 21 update. But a new high is a new high.
This was partially due to new detailed regional polling out of Quebec from Synopsis Recherche which, among other things, tipped the Liberals into being favoured in Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, Alexandre Boulerice’s soon-to-be vacated seat. It’s worth emphasizing that much of the Liberals’ gains are in precarious territory, as reflected by the average of 213.9 seat wins in the model’s simulations, which is actually a drop of 1.6 seats since last week. The Liberals have moved ahead in more ridings than ever, but so many of them are projected to be marginal toss-ups that, inevitably, the Liberals can’t be expected to win them all.
The Conservatives continue to struggle with 33.8% in the vote projection, a drop of 0.2 points (following a drop of 0.5 points last week). This puts them tied for their lowest-ever vote share in the projection. Leading in only 82 seats puts them at their lowest point as well.
The New Democrats stand at 14 seats in the projection (winning nine on average) while the Bloc Québécois has slid behind in three seats, pushing them down to just 18. That also matches the party’s average number of wins.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
The trend lines have simply been holding pretty stable for the Liberals — though perhaps there has been a sign of softening in some of the latest polls (more on that later this week in the Weekly Writ). But, for now, the regional numbers are still looking remarkably good for the party. Let’s take a look at them.