Liberal lead holds at nearly 12 points
Federal Projection Update for March 24, 2026
The Liberals are holding their wide advantage over the Conservatives in The Writ’s latest update and are projected to win 46% of the vote if an election were held today, putting them nearly 12 points ahead of the Conservatives.
The Conservatives stand at 34.4%, with both the Liberals and Conservatives virtually unchanged since last week’s update. The New Democrats, however, are up 1.2 points to 9%.
There’s been little change in the national seat projection, with the Liberals down one seat to 217, the Conservatives up three seats to 94, the Bloc down one to 21 and the NDP down one to nine. The Greens are holding at two.
In the Average Projection, which takes into account potential polling and modelling errors, the Liberals are still above the 200-seat threshold at 208.4. The Conservatives, who are expected to beat their polling, have an average projection of 107.8 — which certainly looks a lot better than being sub-100.
Visit the Vote and Seat Projection pages at The Writ to see all the interactive charts, tables and maps:
While there hasn’t been much movement at the national level, there has been some shifts regionally, the biggest having been in Alberta.