Looking forward to your deep dive on this election! Even though this was somewhat predictable there's still a lot of little surprises and interesting implications for the future.
I wonder how much of the Liberal support was actually ABC all along? If you're the third place party, you have to offer something more than "we're not the other guys".
I think an analysis of raw vote totals ( by riding or region ?) would also be very revealing . Liberal raw vote was constant from 2018 , up approx 4% in % terms , while NDP down almost 50% raw and I think 8% in % terms . So Libs held their individual voters and ended up in same # of seats . Did the Lib to NDP voters from 2018 just stay home , letting PCs take some of the new NDP seats ?
Yes, that'll be worth looking into. I'm waiting for the count to be complete before really diving deep as Elections Ontario still has a final 1% of polls to count.
Looking forward to your deep dive on this election! Even though this was somewhat predictable there's still a lot of little surprises and interesting implications for the future.
I wonder how much of the Liberal support was actually ABC all along? If you're the third place party, you have to offer something more than "we're not the other guys".
I think an analysis of raw vote totals ( by riding or region ?) would also be very revealing . Liberal raw vote was constant from 2018 , up approx 4% in % terms , while NDP down almost 50% raw and I think 8% in % terms . So Libs held their individual voters and ended up in same # of seats . Did the Lib to NDP voters from 2018 just stay home , letting PCs take some of the new NDP seats ?
Yes, that'll be worth looking into. I'm waiting for the count to be complete before really diving deep as Elections Ontario still has a final 1% of polls to count.