Can the Liberals flip Chicoutimi—Le Fjord?
Federal Projection Update for July 7, 2026.
The slate of federal byelections that will need to be called within the next six months or so keeps getting more and more interesting.
The list of current and pending vacancies in the House of Commons grew to seven today, when the Liberals announced that Richard Martel, the Conservative MP for the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, had been appointed to the Senate.
I’ll delve a little deeper into this riding and what this move means in the Weekly Writ on Thursday. But what does the projection say about the Conservatives’ chances of holding this seat — and the Liberals’ chances of flipping it?
Before getting to that, this week’s update to the Federal Vote and Seat Projection shows little change from last week (or the week before that).
The Liberals remain in a commanding position with 44.6% support, which nets them an average of 201 seats in the seat projection. The Conservatives sit at 34.9% and an average of 110.2 seats, followed by the New Democrats at 10.3% and 11 seats on average. The Bloc Québécois is up a little bit in Quebec and leads in 22 seats, winning 19.5 on average.
For fully interactive charts, tables and maps, head to The Writ’s website:
The Bloc is actually an interesting potential player in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord byelection. The party might be distracted by its efforts to hold Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton if the two byelections occur at the same time (presumably, the Liberals will want to make that happen) but it will be the third combattant in what looks like a three-cornered fight.