B.C. NDP position worsening, but it's still the narrow favourite to win
Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-54.
It wasn’t too long ago that the B.C. New Democrats were poised to win the 2024 provincial election in a landslide. The party was polling well and its chief rival was imploding following a disastrous rebound. The minor Conservative Party was being boosted in the polls, but all that was going to do was split the vote and elect more New Democrats.
Then B.C. United’s floor kept dropping and Conservative support kept rising. The Conservatives added former BCU MLAs to their caucus and moved definitively into second place. Maybe the NDP had a fight on its hands, but it was still the easy favourite to win.
Today? David Eby’s New Democrats remain the favourites. But easy favourites? No way. The cushion the NDP had a year ago has evaporated and the upcoming election is theirs to lose — and, if they’re not careful, they just might lose it.
Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.
Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.
Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-54
Back in May, the state of the race shifted from Likely to Lean New Democratic. It is narrowly remaining there today, though if the trends continue to move in the B.C. Conservatives’ favour this could easily become a toss-up. For now, the NDP remains the favourite thanks to its polling and fundraising edge, its more popular leader and the greater likelihood that the New Democrats will get a turnout advantage than will the Conservatives.
The next election in British Columbia will be difficult to predict. The province is on course for a re-alignment, as the upstart Conservatives replace the former Liberals as the main rival to the New Democrats. That could produce some surprising outcomes. But let’s break down why the NDP is still leading the race as it heads into uncharted waters.