As BC United collapses, NDP now has a fight on its hands

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-151.

Six months ago, life was good for the B.C. New Democrats. Their polls were good for them and bad for their opponents. A split of the vote to their right virtually guaranteed they would win in a landslide, gaining seats in parts of the province the party has never represented before.

Now, Premier David Eby and the NDP is one bad campaign away from going down to defeat as the B.C. Conservatives take advantage of the collapse of B.C. United to close the gap on the governing party. There are many questions that remain about the real strength of the Conservatives, but there is no doubt that the NDP will have a real fight on its hands in October — even if the fight remains the NDP’s to lose.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-151

In October, the 2024 B.C. election was graded as a Likely New Democratic victory. The NDP remains favoured, but the forecast has been downgraded to Lean New Democratic as the right-of-centre vote is increasingly consolidating behind the B.C. Conservatives. If support for the NDP and B.C. United continues to slip, the race will be a toss-up. But for now, the NDP’s organizational advantages, leadership edge and regional and demographic distribution of support keeps them the favourite to win this fall.

Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are now only the marginal favourites to win in October, after being such heavy favourites only a few months ago.