B.C. NDP on cruise control as right splits

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-369.

Normally, a government looking for re-election after seven years in power should be a little nervous about its chances. But David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats don’t appear to have much to worry about with 12 months to go before the province’s 2024 campaign.

While their support is holding up well enough, the real reason the NDP can look ahead to next year with confidence is the split of the vote to the right of them as the newly-branded B.C. United (formerly known as the B.C. Liberals) has its support gobbled up by a fledgling Conservative Party.

If this environment endures through to next October, then the New Democrats could win a massive majority of B.C.’s seats — even if they take less of the vote in 2024 than they did in 2020.

Welcome to this edition of the Grenier Political Report, where I bring together electoral precedent, public opinion polls, fundraising and political geography to rate upcoming elections according to a simple grade: likely, lean or toss.

Likely means that all signs point to a party winning a majority government. Lean means that a party is the favourite and could win either a majority or minority, but it is by no means a certainty. Toss means that we can’t say anything more than that the election is a toss-up between two or more parties.

Grenier Political Report for British Columbia, E-369

Whether it be in voting intentions, leader approval ratings or fundraising, David Eby and the B.C. New Democrats have a wide advantage over their rivals, an advantage that is magnified all the more by the nearly even split of the anti-NDP vote between B.C. United and the Conservatives. The NDP doesn’t need to make seat gains to secure re-election, but if that split continues through to next year then virtually all paths will lead to an even bigger majority victory for the New Democrats in 2024.

Let’s now break down why the New Democrats are such heavy favourites to win next year’s election.