Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker
Tracking the polls ahead of Alberta's referendum on October 19
Updated August 14, 2026
A strong majority of Albertans support the province staying in Canada, with nearly two-thirds saying they would vote to remain in the country and less than one-third saying they would vote to begin the process toward holding a binding referendum on independence. There has been a notable shift in the polling average since the last update in July, but this is primarily because of the new Angus Reid Institute poll which shows more support for independence than other pollsters. Compared with when the ARI was last in the field, the new ARI poll suggests there has actually been a net three-point swing toward remaining in Canada. But, as the ARI is the only pollster to have put out new data since July, the impact on the average is a shift toward independence.
Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.
On October 19, Albertans will be voting on 10 referendum questions, including several on immigration and constitutional issues. But there will also be a question related to Alberta independence, though asked in a roundabout way. The wording of the question is:
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
With many polls likely to be published in the coming months on this issue, The Writ has launched the Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker, which will aggregate all of the polls published during this campaign. The chart below shows the current polling average, encompassing all polls, regardless of question wording, that include results on Alberta separation in general or the referendum question in particular. The chart on the left shows the current average with undecideds shown, while the chart on the right is after the removal of undecideds.
The table below includes all publicly available polls on Alberta independence conducted since the beginning of 2026. Note that the question wording is not always consistent between pollsters (Léger, for example, has included an option of Alberta joining the United States in its questionnaire, which has been grouped into the “Independence” column below). When both a generic independence question and the exact wording of the referendum question is included in a poll, the latter result is shown in this table.
You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release.
The method used to calculate the polling average is similar to the methodology described here for The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projections. No adjustments are made to the polls, however, to take into account any potential turnout effects.
The polling averages broken down by region, demographics and voting intentions, as well as tracking charts going back to the beginning of this year, are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇