Updated October 9 - A strong majority of Albertans tell pollsters they will vote to remain in Canada, with 70% choosing to remain against an average of 22% who support beginning the process to hold a binding referendum on Alberta independence. With the removal of undecideds, support for independence is only 24%.
This is largely a debate among United Conservative voters, as there is strong majority support for remaining in Canada in both the urban centres of Calgary and Edmonton and the rural areas of Alberta, among all age groups and among both men and women. Only among UCP voters are opinions split.
Note to Readers: These projections are presented using Datawrapper’s interactive charts. They are best viewed on a desktop. In most cases, you can click, tap or hover over the charts to interact with them.
On October 19, Albertans will be voting on 10 referendum questions, including several on immigration and constitutional issues. But there will also be a question related to Alberta independence, though asked in a roundabout way. The wording of the question is:
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
The Writ’s Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker aggregates all of the polls published during this referendum campaign. The chart below shows the current polling average, encompassing all polls, regardless of question wording, that include results on Alberta separation in general or the referendum question in particular. The chart on the left shows the current average with undecideds shown, while the chart on the right is after the removal of undecideds.
The table below includes all publicly available polls on Alberta independence conducted since the beginning of 2026. Note that the question wording is not always consistent between pollsters (Léger, for example, has included an option of Alberta joining the United States in its questionnaire, which has been grouped into the “Independence” column below). When both a generic independence question and the exact wording of the referendum question is included in a poll, the latter result is shown in this table.
You can click or tap on the name of the polling firm in the left-most column to go directly to that polling firm’s original poll release.
The method used to calculate the polling average is similar to the methodology described here for The Writ’s Vote and Seat Projections. No adjustments are made to the polls, however, to take into account any potential turnout effects.
The polling averages broken down by region, demographics and voting intentions, as well as tracking charts going back to the beginning of this year, are available for subscribers of The Writ below 👇