Just wondering if the better expression is bellwether rather than tipping point?
A tipping point usually describes a threshold event that is said to impact future events. If riding outcomes occurred one per day over 338 days in a series then a tipping point riding would be the ridings that lead to a majority or a final tally.
I'm thinking the above are a list of bellwether ridings, ie. indicators of an existing trend. They may be tipping points at the final vote tally but for the moment they are bellwether ridings.
In this case, the "tipping point" is borrowed from U.S. elections, where the tipping point state is the one that gets a candidate over 270 electoral college votes. The idea is that anything won by bigger margins is "easier", and so the tipping point is the one that if a candidate can't win it, they are unlikely to win anything that is "harder".
Bellwether describes a riding that consistently votes with the party that wins government, but it doesn't mean that it is always the closest riding. You can win a bellwether by 20 points in an election that is otherwise close.
Fun fact: Niagara Centre was actually the last riding in 2019 to be called by the networks. The region as a whole (Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, and St. Catharines) will be ridings to watch. 2 Liberal incumbents from 2015 and 2 Conservative holds for the majority of the 21st century. Lots of Toronto folks moving down here, as well as the aging population, has a shift in demographics that might just see some seats flip
Just wondering if the better expression is bellwether rather than tipping point?
A tipping point usually describes a threshold event that is said to impact future events. If riding outcomes occurred one per day over 338 days in a series then a tipping point riding would be the ridings that lead to a majority or a final tally.
I'm thinking the above are a list of bellwether ridings, ie. indicators of an existing trend. They may be tipping points at the final vote tally but for the moment they are bellwether ridings.
Am I wrong here?
In this case, the "tipping point" is borrowed from U.S. elections, where the tipping point state is the one that gets a candidate over 270 electoral college votes. The idea is that anything won by bigger margins is "easier", and so the tipping point is the one that if a candidate can't win it, they are unlikely to win anything that is "harder".
Bellwether describes a riding that consistently votes with the party that wins government, but it doesn't mean that it is always the closest riding. You can win a bellwether by 20 points in an election that is otherwise close.
Fun fact: Niagara Centre was actually the last riding in 2019 to be called by the networks. The region as a whole (Niagara Centre, Niagara Falls, Niagara West, and St. Catharines) will be ridings to watch. 2 Liberal incumbents from 2015 and 2 Conservative holds for the majority of the 21st century. Lots of Toronto folks moving down here, as well as the aging population, has a shift in demographics that might just see some seats flip