What to watch in Toronto–St. Paul's

Benchmarks for today's vote. (LIVESTREAM TONIGHT!)

Today’s byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s is one that would be an easy win for the governing party in normal times. But these aren’t normal times for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Carolyn Bennett won this seat in midtown Toronto by a margin of 24 points over the Conservative candidate in the 2021 election, and the Liberals have held this part of the city without interruption since 1993. But with the Liberals’ support tumbling in the polls and the Conservatives on the upswing, even a stronghold like Toronto–St. Paul’s is at risk of flipping from red to blue.

As I did with the Durham byelection back in March, I’m going to set some benchmarks for each of the parties based on their current state of polling.

But first, let me invite you to join Philippe J. Fournier and me at 8:30 PM ET when the polls close for our live analysis of the results. We’ll chat politics, comment on what we’re seeing and take questions from viewers. Grab a chair, grab a drink, and join us!

A word of warning, however. With 84 candidates on the ballot, it could be a long count. So, we might not be able to make a call for awhile — whether it is a close race or not! You’ll probably want to pack some snacks.

A Liberal must-win that should be a lock

While Toronto–St. Paul’s has been a reliable Liberal seat for the last 30 years, it is possible to over-state the party’s strength in this riding — particularly in the broader context of Toronto.