What to watch in the Durham byelection

Benchmarks for today's vote. (LIVESTREAM TONIGHT)

There might not be a lot of suspense ahead of today’s Durham byelection. The Conservatives have the riding for 20 years and are very likely to win it again.

But as the first real electoral contest to take place since the Conservatives moved decisively ahead of the Liberals in national polling late last summer, the results will be a test of the new environment.

Will the Conservatives increase their vote share in Durham to match their surge in the polls? Will the Liberals see a decrease in support, foreshadowing further losses in the Greater Toronto Area and elsewhere in the country that could cost them power in 2025?

Party strategists hoping to spin bad results and political commentators trying to dismiss real vote tallies that don’t align with their pre-conceived narratives have a long track record of trying to downplay the importance of byelections.

Of course, they are only a small piece of a larger puzzle. But, as discussed in the last episode of The Writ Podcast, they are also important testing grounds for parties to try out new techniques, technologies and messages. They are certainly not meaningless.

Byelections results (particularly when taken in the aggregate) have historically predicted future general election results more often than not, by a margin of roughly two-to-one. Governments limping to defeat tend to lose support in byelections. Parties on track for victory tend to gain in them. There are always exceptions to the rule, but all else being equal you’d prefer to be increasing your share of the vote in byelections than otherwise — and not just by a little bit.

So, let’s take a look at what to expect in Durham, what benchmarks the parties should be trying to hit and how the results will fit into each party’s track record (and Justin Trudeau’s) to date.

When the polls close at 8:30 PM ET, join me and Philippe J. Fournier for our livestream of the Durham byelection results. We’ll provide some live analysis as the votes are counted, answer viewer questions and have a little fun. Be there and definitely be square: