Weekly Writ for Mar. 20: Eby's NDP still on track for big win
Plus new polls on Naheed Nenshi's impact on the Alberta NDP and where things stand in Saskatchewan.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
With only seven months to go before British Columbia’s election, David Eby’s New Democrats remain in a commanding position, with few prospects for a consolidation of the vote to the right of the party.
A poll published by the Angus Reid Institute this weeks shows the B.C. New Democrats holding the support of 43% of decided voters, up one point from when the ARI was last in the field in late November and early December. The NDP holds a 21-point lead over its rivals, as the B.C. Conservatives and B.C. United (formerly known as the Liberals) find themselves in a tie with 22% apiece. The Greens come up in fourth with 12%, unchanged from the fall.
These numbers represent an improvement for BCU, up two points while the Conservatives have fallen three. Those aren’t statistically significant shifts, but they are psychologically significant for BCU as the party has been in free fall in poll after poll.
The NDP holds a comfortable lead in Metro Vancouver, up 30 points over BCU, and is also comfortably ahead of the B.C. Greens by 19 points on Vancouver Island and along the north coast. It is a tighter three-way race in the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley, but even there the New Democrats come out on top. Seat outcomes in the region will depend on how the vote for each party is distributed across it, but the numbers bode well for the NDP’s chances to benefit from a divided vote to its right.
In the Interior and North, the NDP has 42% support and is ahead of the Conservatives by 10 points, while BCU trails in third with 19%. This, too, bodes well for the NDP’s odds of picking up seats in a region that has traditionally been unfriendly.
Even the demographic breakdowns look good for the New Democrats — their strongest support is among British Columbians aged 55 or older. They hold a 25-point lead over both the Conservatives and BCU among this cohort, which suggests the NDP has little to worry about when it comes to under-performing their polls. Turnout, if anything, could benefit the NDP.
Eby is primarily surfing on the unpopularity of his opposition as his government gets very poor marks on the top three issues cited by British Columbians: cost of living and inflation, healthcare and housing affordability.
On both housing and cost of living, just 17% of respondents said the government was doing a good job while 78% said it was doing a poor job. The numbers were only a little better on the issue of healthcare at 27% and 68%, respectively.
In most other provinces, those kinds of scores would spell trouble for the incumbent government.
But elections force voters to make a choice. And, as it stands, voters don’t really think the other options would do any better.
On healthcare, 40% trusted the NDP to deal with it best compared to just 15% for the Conservatives and 14% for BCU. The NDP was trusted most on cost of living and housing as well. Even if we combine the Conservative and BCU tallies, the NDP is still one point ahead on healthcare, just one point behind on cost of living and five points behind on housing. A consolidation of all of the Conservative and BCU vote would still keep the NDP competitive on these issues.
But consolidation simply doesn’t seem to be in the cards.
David Eby’s approval rating stands at 48%, suggesting he has upside for the NDP — he is more popular than his own party. But both BCU leader Kevin Falcon and Conservative leader John Rustad have just 22% favourability, putting them even with their respective parties. Falcon, with a 51% unfavourability rating, is more unpopular than Rustad, who stands at 40% unfavourable.
This shows that neither leader has much appeal to the broader electorate. But they also don’t have much appeal to each other’s electorate. Among Conservative voters, Falcon has only a 24% favourability rating against 53% unfavourable. He is not well-positioned to pull voters away from the Conservatives. Rustad, with a 27% favourable to 33% unfavourable rating among BCU voters, perhaps has more potential to pull those voters over to him.
But if the vote consolidates around the Conservatives, would the BCU start bleeding more moderate support? It’s certainly possible. Eby is not popular among BCU voters, as he has a 68% unfavourable rating. But 26% of BCU voters have a favourable view of the premier, roughly even with the number that have a favourable view of Rustad. If BCU collapses, the NDP might be able to pad their support with centrist voters uncomfortable with the more right-wing B.C. Conservative Party.
The issue set is not particularly good for the B.C. New Democrats, but Premier David Eby is blessed that his opposition is not particularly good either.
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Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News of a provincial byelection coming in Newfoundland and Labrador, a nomination battle in Ottawa Centre that could have some broader implications, the announcement that a long-time Conservative MP will not be running for re-election, and a style change for the beleaguered B.C. United.
Polls on whether Naheed Nenshi would help the Alberta NDP win in Calgary and where things stand ahead of this fall’s election in Saskatchewan. Plus, some new national numbers and a survey that shows how Brian Mulroney’s reputation has been rehabilitated in public opinion.
Updates nationally, in B.C. and Saskatchewan of what the seat outcomes would be if the elections were held today.
Fogo Island-Cape Freels riding profile ahead of its upcoming byelection.
Stephen Harper’s first big victory in the #EveryElectionProject.