Weekly Writ for Mar. 13: Naheed Nenshi is in
What will it mean for the Alberta NDP in Calgary? Plus, Conservative prospects in Atlantic Canada.
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
So, Naheed Nenshi is making a return to active politics and vying to become the next leader of the Alberta New Democrats.
I’ll get into what this means for the Alberta NDP in a bit. But first, a thought on how Nenshi’s return is a nice change of pace from what’s become the latest trend in Canadian politics.
Here we have Nenshi, a former mayor who never lost an election but who, at 52, still has lots to give choosing to get back into politics — and at a higher level of government to boot.
Lately it seems it’s been the other way around.
Take a look at many of our mayor’s offices in this country and you’ll find a former politician who lost an election and decided a municipal run would be a good consolation prize.
After failing to make inroads in her fourth election as leader, Andrea Horwath resigned as leader of the Ontario New Democrats and the province’s official opposition to instead become the mayor of Hamilton. One of her opponents in her last provincial election, Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, didn’t win his own seat and led the party to a disastrous third-place showing. He’s now the mayor of Vaughan.
There’s Patrick Brown, who was unceremoniously dumped as leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives and subsequently redirected his efforts at becoming the mayor of Brampton. He’s still there, though in the interim he also ran for (and was unceremoniously dumped as a candidate) the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada.
Less notable though they were, there are cases like Edmonton’s mayor Amajeet Sohi, defeated as a Liberal cabinet minister in the 2019 federal election, Halifax’s Mike Savage, who ran for mayor after losing his federal seat in the 2011 election and Gilles Lehouillier, defeated as a Quebec Liberal in 2012 and elected as mayor of Lévis in 2013.
These cases are somewhat different in that one could argue that being the mayor of a large city is a bigger responsibility than being an MP or MNA. But they are more examples of a jurisdictional demotion as opposed to the more natural progression from municipal to provincial and finally to federal politics. And they all have in common that they were Plan Bs after Plan A didn’t work out.
It’s an open question whether Nenshi could have won a fourth term had he run again in 2021. Earlier that year, however, his approval rating was 57%, suggesting that he had a very good shot. His departure from the mayor’s office was not a case of a politician avoiding defeat. He left on his own terms rather than being shown the door.
That makes his return to politics not quite a comeback, but more of a continuation. And, most notably, it comes when he still might have some game. Not like Jean Charest, who ran for the federal Conservative leadership one or two contests too late (and who, of course, lost his last electoral fight in 2012). Or like Denis Coderre, who is teasing a potential run for the Quebec Liberal leadership after two mayoral defeats and little real indication that anyone is clamouring for a comeback.
It’s also not terribly opportunistic. Choosing to make a return to politics as part of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative team, for instance, might be pretty appealing some 18 months from the next election when that party appears on track to form government.
The Alberta New Democrats don’t have the same prospects. As we’ll see below, Premier Danielle Smith remains relatively popular. The NDP has a thankless three years ahead of it as the progressive opposition to a conservative government in a conservative province. If Nenshi wins the leadership, he won’t even have a seat in the legislature until one is provided to him and the internal politics of the Alberta NDP is unlikely to be much fun for an outsider.
So, it’s a little refreshing to see a politician of some skill decide to get back into the game when the timing is still good and the task ahead won’t be easy. This isn’t a consolation prize, it’s an upgrade — and it wasn’t chosen as the next-best option because those pesky voters slammed a better door shut.
TOMORROW ON THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, Philippe and I will break down some of the latest national polling numbers and discuss what Nenshi’s entry into the race could mean for the NDP. Join our Patreon here for this bonus episode that will be available for viewing and listening on Thursday!
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on what Naheed Nenshi’s entry into the Alberta NDP leadership race means for the party’s prospects in Calgary.
A deep dive into what impact the polls would have on the Liberals’ seat holdings in Atlantic Canada, plus new premier approval ratings and polls on pharmacare, immigration, a hypothetical Liberal leadership and where things stand in Ontario.
Huge majorities for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and David Eby’s New Democrats if the election were held today.
A key Regina seat for the Saskatchewan NDP in this week’s riding profile.
Another Alberta Liberal leader comes and goes in the #EveryElectionProject.