Weekly Writ for Jan. 17: Your guesses for 2024
Where the betting money is for 2024, two former premiers resign and how Conservatives split on the U.S. election
Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.
With the end of day today being the deadline for entering The Writ’s 2024 Prediction Contest, I wanted to take a look at what bettors are already predicting will happen in the coming year.
Some of those predictions are already looking shaky.
For one, we know that Heather Stefanson will not be the leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives by year’s end, as she officially stepped down on Monday (more on that below). That already puts 20% of contestants down five points. The 60% who think Kelvin Goertzen will be leader (presumably as interim) are on sounder footing.
Similarly, we heard yesterday that Rachel Notley is resigning as leader of the Alberta New Democrats (again, more on that below). Fully 48% of entrants think she’ll still be leader by the end of the year, which will now depend on whether or not the NDP decides to hold the leadership race in 2024. For now, she’s staying on as interim. The favourites to replace her (at 16% apiece) are Sarah Hoffman and Kathleen Ganley.
There’s little doubt about the outcome of two of three provincial elections this year. It is unanimous that the NDP will win in British Columbia, while 92% think the Saskatchewan Party will be re-elected as well. Answers were more divided in New Brunswick, with 56% thinking the Liberals will prevail.
The average seat guess in New Brunswick is a virtual tie: 23.2 seats for the Liberals, 23 for the PCs and 2.7 for the Greens. The race for official opposition in B.C. is also a toss-up, with B.C. United averaging 11.3 seats in subscribers’ predictions and the Conservatives averaging 11 seats. The NDP, with an average guess of 68 seats, is the heavy favourite, with the Greens at 2.7.
And in Saskatchewan, contestants give the Sask. Party an average of 36.2 seats, compared to 24.8 for the NDP.
Only 12% of you think there will be a federal election in 2024, though 44% think there will be a resignation by one of the federal leaders: 40% think Justin Trudeau will step aside, while a few think Jagmeet Singh will as well.
Fully 72% of you think New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs will resign this coming year, with 12% thinking Quebec Premier François Legault will do the same. Only one of you predicted a different premier would resign (and that was Doug Ford).
As for the U.S. presidential election, The Writ’s subscriber base seems bullish on Joe Biden’s chances, with 68% giving him the nod over Donald Trump. Another 16% of you think Trump will beat Biden, while the remaining 16% chose some other match-up.
You still have a few more hours to get your predictions in for 2024. At stake is a free paid membership to The Writ for you and a friend, plus the title of the holder of the coveted Writ Cup! Good luck! You can enter here.
Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:
News on upcoming leadership races in Manitoba and Alberta and changes coming to the federal New Democrats.
Polls on Canadians’ views of the U.S. election (and what that means for our politics), plus the latest national voting intentions.
Who would win the most seats if the election were held today (everywhere).
Riding profile of a P.E.I. district nearly every visitor to the Island has passed through.
Robert Bourassa’s first leadership victory in the #EveryElectionProject.