Weekly Writ for Apr. 17: Will this minority government go the distance?

Plus, a PC byelection upset in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Welcome to the Weekly Writ, a round-up of the latest federal and provincial polls, election news and political history that lands in your inbox every Wednesday morning.

With the confidence and supply agreement with the NDP ostensibly still in force, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was able to present the federal budget yesterday with some confidence that it would be passed — and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government would be in no danger of falling for the foreseeable future.

And that means this minority government could prove to be the longest-lasting in modern Canadian history.

At 877 days, the 44th Parliament already ranks as the second-longest minority parliament since before the Second World War. Only a few days ago, it surpassed the Stephen Harper minority of 2008-11. A couple weeks ago it also passed the two Lester Pearson minorities of 1963-65 and 1965-68.

Assuming the budget is indeed passed (Jagmeet Singh was non-committal yesterday, but we’ve seen this dance before), the Liberals will need to survive only a few more months to have led the longest minority Parliament in nearly a century. On June 17, this Parliament will surpass the current record holder: Harper’s first minority, between February 2006 and September 2008, lasted for 937 days.

I’ve used the qualifier of modern history due to Mackenzie King’s long minority government of 1926-30. That one lasted 1,305 days. In order for Trudeau to be the all-time record-holder, he’ll have to survive one more budget vote and avoid a dissolution before July 2025.

There are two models for surviving in a minority government for as long as the Liberals have.

The first is to have a steady partner on the other side of the aisle. King’s Liberals stayed in office from 1926 to 1930 thanks to the support of what was left of the Progressive Party. Pearson’s two minorities in the 1960s survived thanks to the informal backing of the New Democrats. Trudeau’s Liberal minority has endured since 2021 thanks to its formal arrangement with the NDP.

The second is brinksmanship — or Harper’s model. His two minority governments lasted so long despite daring the opposition to defeat him. Weak and divided, the opposition parties refused to call his bluff time and time again. In 2008, it was Harper himself who dissolved parliament and called an election. In 2011, the opposition finally voted no-confidence in the government and forced an election, though it didn’t seem that the Conservatives, leading in the polls at the time, minded all that much.

One model almost inevitably will run out of time or patience. Though it seems likely from today’s vantage point, from a historical perspective it will be remarkable if this Parliament does indeed go the distance.

But, if we get another minority government after the next election, what model will it adopt?

Now, to what is in this week’s instalment of the Weekly Writ:

• News of a big upset in Newfoundland and Labrador, how much money is going into party coffers in Quebec and when the Manitoba PCs will name their new leader. Plus, the Conservatives land a new candidate in Quebec.

• Polls show a stable national environment and hint at whether yesterday’s budget might move the dial. Plus, new provincial numbers out of Ontario and B.C.

• Majorities for Pierre Poilievre, Doug Ford and David Eby if the election were held today, but potentially a minority for Andrew Furey.

• A riding profile of Milton, the provincial byelection to watch on May 2.

• A Liberal upset in Yukon in the #EveryElectionProject.

IN THE NEWS

NL PCs score upset in Fogo Island-Cape Freels byelection

The Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals suffered a stinging rebuke in Monday’s byelection in Fogo Island-Cape Freels, a defeat that could dampen speculation that Premier Andrew Furey might call an early election this year.